Tag Archives: Accuweather

The Pointlesseness of Climate Data

Brett Anderson of Accuweather links to a Nov 5, 2008 Earth Observatory article by Rebecca Lindsey, “Correcting Ocean Cooling“, examining how Josh Willis “determined that there were errors” in his “Recent Cooling of the Upper Ocean” work.

(both the 2007 correction and 2006 original are available at this link)

Brett explains that:

“After applying a correction, the historical record shows a relatively steady increase (ocean heat content) in line with what’s shown by climate models”

I am sorry but it does sound fishy that all the hard digging was done only because the data were too cool. One is left with the lingering feeling that no such an effort ever materializes for data that shows warming (talk about WARMING BIAS there…)

And in fact: taking the Earth Observatory article at face value, one can indeed figure out the real reason behind Willis’ revisiting of his original data. At the time of publication of the original article (2006):

Willis described the [original] results as a “speed bump” on the way to global warming

Apparently, he soon convinced himself his data was not right. In February 2007, Willis said to his wife:

“I think ocean cooling isn’t real”

Why? Because:

In fact, every body was telling me I was wrong

And what was Willis’ own “tipping point”?

It wasn’t until that next year of data came in that the cooling in the Atlantic became so large and so widespread that Willis accepted the cooling trend for what is was: an unambiguous sign that something in the observations was “clearly not right.”

In all likelihood, had the original data shown warming, and/or the “next year of data” shown widespread warming, few if anybody would have told Willing that he was “wrong“. Chances are he would not have re-analysed anything at all.

The real irony can be extracted from the end of the EO piece:

We need multiple, independent, overlapping sets of observations of climate processes from space and from the Earth’s surface so that we can create long-term climate records—and have confidence that they are accurate. We need theories about how the parts of the Earth system are related to each other so that we can make sense of observations. And we need models to help us see into the future.

But for years, Willis has been stressing that

Argo data show no warming in the upper ocean over the past four years, but this does not contradict the climate models

Now, obviously the corrected data do “not contradict the climate models” either.

And so it really does look like there is no need for “multiple, independent, overlapping sets of observations“. Any and every data is always unable to “contradict the climate models“.

Why do people still bother to measure anything related to climate when the end result is pre-ordained, one wonders.

Joe Bastardi: Unbelievable Al Gore

Joe Bastardi, long-range forecast expert at Accuweather.com, responds to Al Gore’s statements on CBS’s 60 Minutes that people skeptical of AGW are “almost like the ones who still believe that the moon landing was staged in a movie lot in Arizona and those who believe the world is flat“:

I am absolutely astounded that someone who refuses to publicly debate anyone on this matter and has no training in the field narrated a movie where frames of nuclear explosions were interspersed in a subliminal way in scenes of droughts and flood, among other major gaffes, can say these things and then have them accepted… by anyone.

[…] What gets me most is he goes on unchallenged one-on-one on this. Never in all my years of competition have I seen someone elevated to a level that he is, in any thing, without any face-to-face competition to establish credibility.

[…] anyone that believes he knows absolutely what is going to happen with the climate in the future, well you be the judge as to who is the card carrying member of the flat Earth society, that person, or the skeptic.

Joe Bastardi: Love the Weather, Hate the Climate (Models)

From “Today, We Have “Gods” Walking Among Us That Know The Future, Armed With Idols Known as Models“, by Joe Bastardi, Meteorologist at Accuweather.com

To those who want this debate shut down, it seems to me that you simply wish to run away from discussing what you don’t have the facts to fight. Or do you have other reasons, perhaps unrelated to the issue of climate change […]

Instead of confronting cold, hard facts with open and free debate to try to get to the right answer, we have a group of people that know better and will use future projections of a model as fact. And I ask how can it even be allowed to assume that a model knows the answer?
This is not just a problem of prediction – who is right and who is wrong. It is bad for democracy and bad for science, too. And it can ruin the lives of many through the turmoil it can cause in unintended results.
And what about those models. Has anyone in the media paid attention to how how bad the forecasts of the last El Nino and the La Nina have been? […]

Why the model bust? It is because most of these climate models have little or no ability to foresee regime changes in the oceans short and long term. It should be a warning shot to climate modelers that their longer term climate models are clueless as to the parameters predicted. In the end, it may be ice, not fire, that is the problem. As this powerful La Nina could be the sign of the regime change back to cool like the one in 1949/50 […]

My fondest hope is that you take this in the spirit I am writing it. The weather is calling you to get involved in this argument for the sake of yourselves and the sake of your children. You must look at all the ideas to make your decision, not accept pat answers or answers that refuse to accept scrutiny and be tested. And I don’t ask you to believe what I say as far as what I think the answer is, no matter how much research I do. I am but a man. But do go look for yourself, at all the information, while there is still the chance to do so.

Weather Men Get the Better of Naughty Girl

Peculiar story from Dr Joe Sobel’s US Weather blog at Accuweather:

The AccuWeather Forensic Team has worked on thousands of very interesting cases over the years. Most of them involve slip and falls, automobile, marine or aviation accidents and damage to buildings caused by wind, rain or snow, but every now and then a unique and different case comes along. One such case awhile back involved a divorce dispute.

What, you ask, could weather have to do with a divorce? Well in this case our couple was obviously not getting along very well and one night, after a prolonged argument, the wife threw the husband out of the house. Not only did she throw him out of the house, but she also took all of his stuff … electronics, clothing, correspondence, etc and piled it up in the backyard. That night it allegedly rained and all of the stuff outside was ruined, amounting to tens of thousands of dollars of damage. The husband’s attorney smelled a rat and called the AccuWeather Forensic Team and asked us to determine how much it really rained that night. Well, we gathered all of the weather observations from all of the surrounding weather stations and we also looked at Doppler radar and highly detailed lightning strike data to fill in the holes between the weather stations. We needed to do that to make sure we wouldn’t miss an isolated thunderstorm that might not have shown up at the weather observation stations. As it turned out … it didn’t rain a drop at the site in question that night and the wife had quite literally “hosed” her husband. She took the garden hose and thoroughly soaked all of his stuff!!! Our report went a long way to helping the husband receive a favorable judgement in this case.

Cooling Event? Meteorologist Joe Bastardi's Latest Forecast

Joe Bastardi, one of AccuWeather.com’s most expert senior meteorologists, has written a very opinionated piece about the possibility that a very strong, almost unseasonable La Nina (i.e. cooling) event will be “a kick in the teeth of people pushing man-made global warming. Why? Because this is exactly what should be happening in the natural cycle that develops when the AMO is in its warm state“.

We will see if that will happen. It is just a matter of waiting for March/April 2008.

In any case, Mr Bastardi’s courage to put himself right in the middle of potential unfriendly fire is commendable.

Pity the meteorologist. If he’s wrong, he/she’ll be without a job soon. And Accuweather out of business. And this goes on and on for the whole of his or her career.

It’s the complete opposite of the cushioned world of climatologists that can forecast everything and nothing, ready for just-so stories to justify whatever is going to happen.