Categories
Omniclimate Policy Science Skepticism

When the AGW Revolution Will Come…

…I will be perhaps among the first people put against the wall…

From “Climate Debate Daily“…

Skeptical Blogs

Climate Audit
William M. Briggs
Climate Change Facts
Climate Police
Climate Resistance
Bruce Hall
Friends of Science
Frontiers of Freedom
Warwick Hughes
Warren Meyer
Maurizio Morabito
Luboš Motl
Tom Nelson
Roger Pielke Sr.
Science Bits
Fred Singer
Philip Stott
Anthony Watts
World Climate Report

Categories
Data Omniclimate Science

HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (II)

Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (I)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (II)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (III)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (IV)
Click here for Results of HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (V)

The following contains a list of warmest/coldest year, by data set and by month, plus the ranking for 2007 (where #1=warmest).

Among the values to note :

(a) The year 2007 has seen the warmest month of January since 1850 for Land/Northern Hemisphere and Land/Global. It also ranked second warmest for Sea-surface/Northern Hemisphere in January and February.

(b) For Sea-surface/Southern Hemisphere, November 2007 has been the 29th warmest, and December 2007 the 34th warmest. That is, they were quite cool compared to the maximum values, achieved in both cases in 1997. The same can be said for Sea-surface/Global, ranked #20 in December 2007.

(c) In 2007, Land/Southern Hemisphere temperatures ranked #19 (August), #23 (November) and #33 (December)

MONTHLY TEMPERATURES

Sea-surface Northern Emisphere
January
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1861
2007: #2

February
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1861
2007: #2

March
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1864
2007: #4

April
Warmest: 1878, 2004
Coldest: 1911
2007: #6

May
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1910
2007: #8

June
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1858
2007: #10

July
Warmest: 1868
Coldest: 1863
2007: #9

August
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1862
2007: #8

September
Warmest: 2003
Coldest: 1858
2007: #6

October
Warmest: 2006
Coldest: 1863
2007: #10

November
Warmest: 2006
Coldest: 1863
2007: #14

December
Warmest: 2004
Coldest: 1862
2007: #13

Sea-surface Southern Emisphere

January
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1852
2007: #7

February
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #8

March
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1861
2007: #9

April
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #11

May
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1858
2007: #10

June
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #6

July
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1861
2007: #7

August
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1862
2007: #16

September
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1911
2007: #10

October
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1903
2007: #16

November
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1910
2007: #29

December
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1910
2007: #34

Sea-surface Global

January
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1864
2007: #4

February
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1861
2007: #4

March
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1850
2007: #7

April
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #8

May
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1858
2007: #8

June
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1858
2007: #7

July
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1857
2007: #9

August
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1862
2007: #10

September
Warmest: 2003
Coldest: 1859
2007: #9

October
Warmest: 2003
Coldest: 1903
2007: #10

November
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1910
2007: #17

December
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1862
2007: #20

Land Northern Emisphere

January
Warmest: 2007
Coldest: 1893
2007: #1

February
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1862
2007: #6

March
Warmest: 1990
Coldest: 1867
2007: #4

April
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1884
2007: #3

May
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1866
2007: #3

June
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1913
2007: #5

July
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1913
2007: #7

August
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1912
2007: #5

September
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1912
2007: #5

October
Warmest: 2003
Coldest: 1864
2007: #6

November
Warmest: 2004
Coldest: 1862
2007: #7

December
Warmest: 2006
Coldest: 1870
2007: #10

Land Southern Emisphere

January
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1864
2007: #8

February
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #7

March
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1850
2007: #9

April
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #8

May
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1858
2007: #10

June
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #11

July
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1909
2007: #11

August
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1862
2007: #19

September
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1911
2007: #7

October
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1903
2007: #11

November
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1910
2007: #23

December
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1910
2007: #33

Land Global

January
Warmest: 2007
Coldest: 1893
2007: #1

February
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1862
2007: #5

March
Warmest: 2002
Coldest: 1917
2007: #7

April
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #4

May
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1861
2007: #6

June
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1907
2007: #7

July
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1909
2007: #7

August
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1862
2007: #9

September
Warmest: 2003
Coldest: 1859
2007: #8

October
Warmest: 2003
Coldest: 1864
2007: #9

November
Warmest: 2004
Coldest: 1862
2007: #11

December
Warmest: 2006
Coldest: 1892
2007: #15

Categories
Data Omniclimate Science

HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (I)

Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (I)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (II)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (III)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (IV)
Click here for Results of HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (V)

PLEASE LOOK AT POST (V) FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS

=============

Finally the HadCRUT data for the whole of 2007 have been published.

As we have been told time and again that the world has been the warmest most recently, I have conducted a rank analysis on those values.

Three things of note for now:

(a) The year 2007 has been the coolest this century in most data sets, apart from Sea-Surface Northern Emisphere (second coolest) and Land Northern Emisphere (third warmest)

(b) In all data sets, there has been considerable cooling in November and December (and partly, in October 2007)

(c) Sea-surface Southern Emisphere temperatures in December 2007 have been the coolest since December 1995

There is more to the HadCRUT data and I shall return to this shortly.

Here the first results:

(1) In terms of YEARLY TEMPERATURE AVERAGES:

Sea-surface Northern Emisphere
Warmest: 2004
Coldest: 1910
#7: 2007

Sea-surface Southern Emisphere
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
#11: 2007

Sea-surface Global
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1910
#9: 2007

Land Northern Emisphere
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1862
#4: 2007

Land Southern Emisphere
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
#10: 2007

Land Global
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
#8: 2007

(2) In terms of INDIVIDUAL MONTHLY TEMPERATURES:

Sea-surface Northern Emisphere
Warmest: Jul 1868
Coldest: Feb 1861
#45 Jan 2007
#55 Aug 2007
#57 Feb 2007
#58 Jul 2007
#66 Jun 2007
#70 Sep 2007
#81 Mar 2007
#87 Oct 2007
#95 Apr 2007
#105 May 2007
#144 Dec 2007
#147 Nov 2007

Sea-surface Southern Emisphere
Warmest: Mar 1998
Coldest: May 1858
#61 Feb 2007
#73 Jan 2007
#73 Jul 2007
#88 Jun 2007
#97 Mar 2007
#110 Apr 2007
#131 May 2007
#144 Sep 2007
#205 Aug 2007
#258 Oct 2007
#330 Nov 2007
#426 Dec 2007

Sea-surface Global
Warmest: Aug 1998
Coldest: Feb 1861
#56 Jan 2007
#58 Feb 2007
#63 Jul 2007
#77 Jun 2007
#85 Mar 2007
#93 Sep 2007
#95 Apr 2007
#97 Aug 2007
#104 May 2007
#126 Oct 2007
#195 Nov 2007
#246 Dec 2007

Land Northern Emisphere
Warmest: Jan 2007
Coldest: Jan 1893
#1 Jan 2007
#21 Feb 2007
#33 Apr 2007
#43 Mar 2007
#47 Aug 2007
#62 Jul 2007
#65 May 2007
#67 Sep 2007
#68 Oct 2007
#70 Jun 2007
#103 Nov 2007
#109 Dec 2007

Land Southern Emisphere
#Warmest: Jul 1998
#Coldest: May 1858
#52 Feb 2007
#75 Apr 2007
#78 Jan 2007
#93 Sep 2007
#96 Mar 2007
#110 Jul 2007
#120 Jun 2007
#137 May 2007
#161 Oct 2007
#209 Aug 2007
#297 Nov 2007
#396 Dec 2007

Land Global
Warmest: Feb 1998
Coldest: Jan 1893
#3 Jan 2007
#23 Feb 2007
#42 Apr 2007
#58 Mar 2007
#78 Sep 2007
#82 Jul 2007
#87 Jun 2007
#88 May 2007
#92 Aug 2007
#99 Oct 2007
#144 Nov 2007
#174 Dec 2007

Categories
Italia Italiano Mafia

Cuffaro Va Capito

Quante storie per la foto di Cuffaro che festeggia la sua condanna a cinque anni con un piattone di cannoli. Tante al punto da farlo dimettere (o forse ha preferito che il Viminale non gli facesse coniugare il verbo “dimettere” al passivo).

Io tutto questo scandalo nei cannoli proprio non lo vedo.

Condanna, assoluzione, nascita, morte, matrimonio, divorzio, assunzione, licenziamento…cosa importa? E’ SEMPRE IL MOMENTO BUONO PER CELEBRARE CON UN BEL VASSOIONE DI CANNOLI!!!

E sara’ un momento buonissimo, il giorno che da Roma finisse finalmente l’appoggio a personaggi implicati in un modo o nell’altro con la mafia.

Siciliani, calabresi, campani dovranno naturalmente liberarsene da soli, della malavita organizzata, ma insomma perche’ rendere loro la vita piu’ difficile?

Categories
America Italiano Politica USA

Se Fossi un Elettore Americano…

… avrei grosse difficolta’ nel trovare le mie opinioni in uno dei candidati principali.

Ora capisco perchè nè Barack Obama nè Hillary Clinton mi ispirano granche’ entusiasmo

http://www.dehp.net/candidate/  Scegli il Candidato (in inglese)

Risultati e particolari delle mie risposte qui sotto.

I Miei Risultati
42 Kucinich
32 Gravel
15 Edwards
12 Richardson
12 Obama
12 Clinton
11 Biden
10 Dodd
-2 Paul
-6 McCain
-10 T. Thompson
-10 Giuliani
-13 Huckabee
-13 Brownback
-17 Cox
-30 Hunter
-31 Romney
-43 Tancredo

Le Mie Risposte
Diritto all’aborto – nessuna legislazione federale che vieta aborto. FAVOREVOLE/IMPORTANTE
Pena di morte – diritto dei singoli Stati di avere la pena capitale. CONTRARIO/IMPORTANTE
Nessun bambino lasciato indietro – supporto alla legge “No Child Left Behind” FAVOREVOLE/IMPORTANTE
Cellule staminali embrionali – legalizzare la ricerca che usa cellule staminali di derivazione embrionali. FAVOREVOLE/IMPORTANTE
Esplorazioni minerarie nell’ANWR – perforazioni alla ricerca di petrolio nel Rifugio Nazionale della Fauna Selvatica in Alaska. FAVOREVOLE/POCO IMPORTANTE
Kyoto – adesione degli USA al protocollo de Kyoto. CONTRARIO/POCO IMPORTANTE
Divieto delle armi da assalto – reintegrare il divieto delle armi da assalto FAVOREVOLE/POCO IMPORTANTE
Pistole – controlli su chi chieda il porto d’armi – controlli più completi per chi possegga una pistola. FAVOREVOLE/IMPORTANTE
Legge “Patriot Act”- proseguire quella legge d’emergenza varata dopo l’11 Settembre CONTRARIO/MOLTO IMPORTANTE
Guantanamo – proseguire una presenza militare alla baia de Guantanamo, Cuba. FAVOREVOLE/POCO IMPORTANTE
Tortura – torture possibili a prigionieri “combattenti nemici” o presunti terroristi. CONTRARIO/MOLTO IMPORTANTE
Intercettazioni – intercettazione di comunicazioni via internet/telefono senza autorizzazione preventiva della magistratura. CONTRARIO/POCO IMPORTANTE
Percorso verso la cittadinanza per immigrati illegali – stabilire un percorso grazie al quale gli stranieri illegali già negli Stati Uniti possano diventarne cittadini. FAVOREVOLE/MOLTO IMPORTANTE
Recinzione di confine – costruire una recinzione al confine fra gli Stati Uniti ed il Messico. CONTRARIO/IMPORTANTE
Neutralità della rete – fare in modo che le reti pubbliche trattino ugualmente tutti i contenuti, siti e piattaforme tecnologiche. FAVOREVOLE/POCO IMPORTANTE
Sanzioni all’Iran – mantenere le sanzioni economiche contro l’Iran. CONTRARIO/IMPORTANTE
Iran – azione militare – utilizzare un’azione militare per impedire all’Iran di ottenere armi nucleari. CONTRARIO/IMPORTANTE
Guerra in Irak – continuare la guerra contro i terroristi in Irak. CONTRARIO/POCO IMPORTANTE Aumento delle truppe in Irak – la presenza aumentata di truppe in Irak. FAVOREVOLE/IMPORTANTE
Ritiro dall’Irak – ritirarsi dall’Irak. FAVOREVOLE/IMPORTANTE
Aumento del salario minimo – aumento dello stipendio minimo. FAVOREVOLE/IMPORTANTE
Matrimoni omosessuali – permettere i matrimoni fra omosessuali. FAVOREVOLE/IMPORTANTE
Unioni civili omosessuali – permettere le unioni civili fra persone dello stesso sesso. FAVOREVOLE/IMPORTANTE
Divieto costituzionale dei matrimoni omosessuali – varare un emendameto che vieti I matrimoni omosesuali. CONTRARIO/IMPORTANTE
Sanita’ pubblica universale – stabilire di un sistema federale e universale di sanita’ pubblica. FAVOREVOLE/IMPORTANTE

Categories
America Democracy English Politics USA USA 2008

If I Were a US Citizen…

…I’d be hard pressed to find any mainstream candidate sharing my views.

Now I know why neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton inspire me much enthusiasm 😎

http://www.dehp.net/candidate/
Pick Your Candidate
Instructions: Go through each issue listed below and choose the stance you would prefer in a president. If a particular issue is important to you, select a different weight to the right. If an issue is not important to you, leave it as unknown/other. This site will attempt to match your views against the views of the US presidential candidates

Results and details of the answers below:

  • My Results

42 Kucinich
Disagreements: (4) ANWR Drilling, Kyoto, Guantanamo, Iraq, Troop Surge

32 Gravel
Disagreements: (4) No Child Left Behind, Kyoto, Guantanamo, Iraq Troop Surge

15 Edwards
Disagreements: (8) Death Penalty, ANWR Drilling, Patriot Act, Guantanamo, Iran Sanctions, Iran – Military Action, Iraq Troop Surge, Same-Sex Marriage

12 Richardson
Disagreements: (9) Death Penalty, Kyoto, Assault Weapons Ban, Patriot Act, Guantanamo, Iran Sanctions, Iran – Military
Action, Iraq Troop Surge, Same-Sex Marriage

12 Obama
Disagreements: (7) ANWR Drilling, Patriot Act, Guantanamo, Border Fence, Iran Sanctions, Iraq Troop Surge, Same-Sex Marriage

12 Clinton
Disagreements: (10) Death Penalty, ANWR Drilling, Kyoto, Patriot Act, Guantanamo, Border Fence, Iran Sanctions, Iran – Military
Action, Iraq Troop Surge, Same-Sex Marriage

11 Biden
Disagreements: (8) Death Penalty, ANWR Drilling, Patriot Act, Guantanamo, Border Fence, Iran Sanctions, Iraq Troop Surge, Same-Sex Marriage

10 Dodd
Disagreements: (9) Death Penalty, ANWR Drilling, Kyoto, Patriot Act, Guantanamo, Border Fence, Iran Sanctions, Iran – Military
Action, Iraq Troop Surge

-2 Paul 13/1
-6 McCain 15/1
-10 T. Thompson 7/14
-10 Giuliani 13/3
-13 Huckabee 13/5
-13 Brownback 14/3
-17 Cox 11/9
-30 Hunter 17/3
-31 Romney 16/3
-43 Tancredo 20/2

  • My Answers

Abortion Rights – No federal legislation banning abortion. SUPPORT/IMPORTANT

Death Penalty – States’ right to issue the death penalty. OPPOSE/IMPORTANT

No Child Left Behind – Maintaining the No Child Left Behind Act. SUPPORT/IMPORTANT

Embryonic Stem Cells – Legalizing research that uses stem cells derived from embryos. SUPPORT/IMPORTANT

ANWR Drilling – Drilling for oil in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge. SUPPORT/MINIMAL

Kyoto – The US adhering to the Kyoto Protocol. OPPOSE/MINIMAL

Assault Weapons Ban – Reinstating the Assault Weapons Ban. SUPPORT/MINIMAL

Guns – Background Checks – More thorough background checks for gun ownership. SUPPORT/IMPORTANT

Patriot Act – Maintaining the Patriot Act. OPPOSE/KEY

Guantanamo – Maintaining a military presence at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. SUPPORT/MINIMAL

Torture – Torturing prisoners such as enemy combatants or suspected terrorists. OPPOSE/KEY

Wiretapping – Intercepting internet/telephone communications without a warrant. OPPOSE/MINIMAL

Citizenship Path for Illegals – Creating a path by which illegal aliens already in the US can become citizens. SUPPORT/KEY

Border Fence – Constructing a border fence between the US and Mexico. OPPOSE/IMPORTANT

Net Neutrality – Regulations to ensure that public networks treat all content, sites, and platforms equally. SUPPORT/MINIMAL

Iran Sanctions – Maintaining trade sanctions with Iran. OPPOSE/IMPORTANT

Iran – Military Action – Utilizing military action to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear capabilities. OPPOSE/IMPORTANT

Iraq War – Maintaining the current war with terrorists in Iraq. OPPOSE/MINIMAL

Iraq Troop Surge – The increased troop presence in Iraq. SUPPORT/IMPORTANT

Iraq Withdrawal – Withdrawing from Iraq. SUPPORT/IMPORTANT

Minimum Wage Increase – Increasing the minimum wage. SUPPORT/IMPORTANT

Same-Sex Marriage – Allowing same-sex marriage. SUPPORT/IMPORTANT

Same-Sex Civil Union – Allowing civil unions between people of the same sex. SUPPORT/IMPORTANT

Same-Sex Constitutional Ban – The creation of an ammendment that bans same-sex marriage. OPPOSE/IMPORTANT

Universal Healthcare – The creation of a federal, universal healthcare system. SUPPORT/IMPORTANT

UPDATE: HERE MY RESULTS FROM THE WQAD SURVEY
Dennis Kucinich 48
Mike Gravel 43
Barack Obama 43
John Edwards 39
Rudy Giuliani 38
Hillary Clinton 36
Ron Paul 31
John McCain 24
Mike Huckabee 20
Mitt Romney 17

Categories
Omniclimate Policy Science

Beyond Bufo Marinus

More examples of unintended consequences showing up when decisions are not made after careful considerations…

From the Freakanomics blog:

The Endangered Species Act is one of the most controversial U.S. laws ever passed. A paper by the economists Dean Lueck and Jeffrey Michael, “Preemptive Habitat Destruction Under the Endangered Species Act,” argues that the E.S.A. has actually hurt the plight of the red-cockaded woodpecker by incentivizing property owners to make their land uninhabitable to the bird. More recently, the economists John List, Michael Margolis, and Daniel Osgood found a similar dynamic in their working paper, “Is the Endangered Species Act Endangering Species?” Their animal of concern was the cactus ferruginous pygmy owl.

Categories
AGW Omniclimate

Nobel Abuse

scientists on the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The text above (from AP’s Seth Borenstein, but he’s not alone…) should be denounced for what it is: a gross abuse of the term “Nobel”.

The _only_ acceptable text is “Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change“.

Everything else is just disgusting propaganda.

Who would try to give credibility this way to Kofi Annan, J. M. Coetzee, President Carter, Gabriel García Márquez for their opinions on scientific matters?

Not all Nobel Prizes are alike.

Categories
English Ethics Humanity

Freedom? What Freedom?

We do what is most convenient to us within the boundaries of what compels us.

It doesn’t work, the either way around: if our compulsions came second, we could then simply dismiss them. And we know we can’t.

Categories
Italia Italiano Politica

La Bocca Sporca degli Insulti Onorevoli

Cosa dicono i nostri stimati Onorevoli Senatori quando si devono insultare?

Tommaso Barbato (Udeur): pezzo di merda, traditore, cornuto, frocio

Nino Strano (AN): Squallida checca

E cosi’ sappiamo che dopo tutti questi anni (ne sono passati addirittura trentuno, da Una Giornata Particolare) a decidere le sorti del Paese ci sono degli stimati signori per i quali l’omosessualita’ e’ il livello piu’ basso dell’umanita’. e la mascolinita’ (inclusa evidentemente la capacita’ di controllare la propria moglie) il Bene Supremo.

Tirem innanz’…

Categories
catastrophism Data Omniclimate Policy Science Skepticism

Bali: Gambling the Present for an Unknown Future

Very wise words about the results of the Bali “climate deals” in December 2007, from Dr. Sonia Boehmer-Christiansen (University of Hull, UK), editor of the journal “Energy and Environment“:

What the Bali agreements (i.e. a small adaptation fund, more CDM projects/policies, more negotiations on targets and timetables; technology transfer) are likely to mean for international efforts is simple to predict for a long-time observer. Great rhetorical efforts will continue with little effective actionother [than] more centralization of state power – in most countries […]

many agendas and several regions are likely to benefit from developments of less carbon intensive economies and lifestyles. The political consequences of such attempted developments may nevertheless be disastrous where economic growth or prosperity is undermined […]

Food, water, education and health are already more urgent ‘real’ global problems than climatic changes. Our primary (and more arduous) responsibility therefore is to current generations, though politics favors the future. People alive today are expected to pay for the implementation of an agenda too little concerned with conflict resolution but based on fear derived from computer model predictions generated and used by institutions that cannot be absolved of political motivations, however honorable.

For scientific reasons, all climate change policymakers and activists might familiarize themselves with the many voices – admittedly not proclaiming consensus – that are critical of the IPCC ‘scientific consensus’. More efforts needs to be devoted to observing climatic reality, understanding climate and only then, perhaps, on preparing for adaptation to real change. In the meantime, there are enough real problems to solve.

The above is from the Roundtable Forum “Tackling Climate Change” at IA-forum.org.

Categories
AGW catastrophism Omniclimate Science Skepticism Sun

Corbyn Admits Being Wrong

The feeblest of minds will see this as a sign of failure.

The rest of us should instead take notice that WeatherAction’s forecasts can be and are at times falsified. The same cannot be said of the usual AGW predictions

Note 23 Jan from Piers Corbyn re letter 21 Jan and ‘on-line’ comments in The Times:

1. Our long range forecast for January particularly* in most of England and Wales has – exceptionally – been a failure for most of the month and two reasons for this are mentioned in the correctional update on our website www.weatheraction.com One reason was to do with the timing of events originating on the sun, the other was a data transfer error. The consequence has been – and independent monitors have said – this is exceptionally the largest forecast error we have made for years. In view of our data transfer error we will compensate forecast subscribers appropriately although please note the terms and conditions do not give us any duty to so do.

(* For Scotland and parts of Northern England and Northern Ireland the often cold and snowy weather is more in line with our forecast for southward shifts of the jet stream at times – which we had expected to shift further).

2. Observers should note that our forecast never said this January would be ‘more like 1740’ (than 1987) and concerning the end November / start December storm period we never said gales of the severity of the 1703 windstorm. In both cases we clearly said the weather would NOT be as extreme as then. People who claim we said such must please quote sources and say by whom such mis-information has been put about and for what purpose.

3. It is noteworthy that Paul Simons did not feel confident enough that our actual forecast would go wrong to wait for it to do so; and instead chose to make a false statement about our forecast (of an “apocalyptic freeze” in the first week) which he could instantly denounce since it wasn’t physically possible for such to occur after such a short duration in the British Isles. This we find doubly unacceptable since Mr Simons was sent forecasts in advance and could read what we actually had said.

4. Objective independent measures (by academics, subscribers and weather bets) of our Weather Action long range forecasts show they are much better than chance – ie significantly skilled – and much better than any others available anywhere in the world. For more about proven skill and priase from subscribers visit eg our British or european website www.lowefo.com )

5. We are an advancing science and a proportion of forecasts will go wrong and subscribers – in farming, business and commerce – recognise this and stay with our forecasts for years because they are profitable for their business. Our succes and sales enable ongoing research to improve forecasts so now they more skilled and include more detail. Indeed application of our Solar Weather Technique has been extended in trials to other parts of the world (see eg www.lowefo.com re our first trial forecast for tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal which correctly predicted the Cyclone which became the terrible storm Sidr last year).

6. It is sad that some seek to misrepresent our work (other than noting genuine forecast errors in a fair minded way) rather than say attacking – if they have a driving desire to attack long range forecasts – forecasts from others which are made at public expense and were so misleading to UKplc (eg) over the summer. The reasons for such extremely churlish behaviour must surely be about something other than forecasts and I suggest often are more to do with the desire of proponents of ‘man made global warming’ to claim all weather extreme events as “theirs”. Our success at predicting extreme events and long periods of high risk of extreme weather variations using solar-based methods is not something they want to countenance.

Thank you, Piers Corbyn

Categories
Italiano UE

Lezione al Mondo dall’Unione (Europea) di Stati Altrimenti Poco Importanti

Scrivevo alcuni mesi fa: “Se la UE riuscira’ davvero ad accomodare in maniera razionale tanti Paesi con una tal varieta’ di esperienze, desideri e preoccupazioni […] trasformandosi in una specie di nuove, spontanee Nazioni Unite […] diventera’ allora il primo regalo all’Umanità da parte di un’Europa risorta piu’ pacifica.”

E infatti, ecco un articolo dall’International Herald Tribune del 22 gennaio 2008, a firma Stephen Castle: “Emulando la UE, alcuni Paesi uniscono le loro forze per avere una voce potente e non dispersa“:

“il tentativo dell’Europa di far convinvere 27 disparate nazioni in un blocco viene imitato nel mondo, dall’Asia all’Africa, con i vari Paesi a sperimentare nuovi modi di aumentare la loro capacita’ di influenza. [… ]

l’esperimento europeo di integrazione viene copiato con maggior successo dall’Associazione delle Nazioni Asiatiche Sudorientali ASEAN [con l’obiettivo di] un mercato unico entro 2015.

Anche l’Unione Africana, concepita nel 1999, anche più grande e men pratica con 53 membri, ha preso in prestito strutture della UE, compresa il suo apparato burocratico più influente, modellato sulla Commissione Europea e conosciuto come la Commissione dell’Unione Africana. Il sogno dell’America latina e’ avere qualcosa come l’UE [… ] ”

Ci sono alcune osservazioni nell’articolo secondo cui una struttura centralizzata dell’Unione sarebbe necessaria per realizzare l’obiettivo del “pensiero continentale”.

Non sono d’accordo: quello che e’ importante, è che tutti i membri della UE (e dell’AU e dell’ASEAN) realizzino che ciascuno di loro è troppo piccolo per avere alcuna importanza a confronto delle Potenze, gli USA, la Russia, la Cina, l’India, forse anche il Giappone.

La cooperazione allora sarà una conseguenza naturale di quella realizzazione, senza alcun’esigenza di coercizione.

Anzi, quella è la ragione principale che fa restare i Britannici ancora riluttanti ad entrare completamente nell’Unione, mentalmente e non solo formalmente: perché quello significherà accettare che i giorni dell’impero sono realmente una cosa del passato.

Categories
English EU Europe International Politics

Lessons to the World from Union of Otherwise Inconsequential Nations

I wrote a few months ago: “As a sort of grass-root United Nations, the EU could then become the first gift to Humanity by a more peaceful, re-born Europe“.

And there it is: “Emulating the EU, countries join forces to speak with power and focus” (Stephen Castle, IHT, January 22, 2008):

“Europe’s attempt to weld 27 disparate nations into one bloc is being imitated around the globe, from Asia to Africa, as countries experiment with new ways to maximize influence.

[…] the European experiment with integration is being copied most successfully by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, [aiming for] a single market by 2015.

The African Union, conceived in 1999, while bigger and more unwieldy with 53 members, also borrows from EU structures, including its most influential bureaucracy, modeled on the European Commission and known as the AU Commission. The Latin American dream is to have something like the EU. […]”

There are some comments in the article along the lines of having a more centralized EU structure to achieve the goal of continental thinking.

I do not see that as a must: what is important, is for all the EU (and AU, and ASEAN) members to realize each of them is too small to be of any consequence compared to the Powers called USA, Russia, China, India, maybe even Japan.

Co-operative behavior will then be a natural consequence of that realization, without any need for cohercion.

I still believe that is the main reason why the British are reluctant to fully enter the EU: because that will mean them accepting that the days of the Empire are really a thing of the past.

Categories
English Technology

Wii: Unbelievable

Head Tracking for Desktop VR Displays using the Wii Remote

Using the infrared camera in the Wii remote and a head mounted sensor bar (two IR LEDs), you can accurately track the location of your head and render view dependent images on the screen. This effectively transforms your display into a portal to a virtual environment. The display properly reacts to head and body movement as if it were a real window creating a realistic illusion of depth and space.

A couple of more projects are at Johnny Chung Lee‘s website.

Categories
Omniclimate Science Skepticism

Four Categories of Skepticism

According to American sociologist Marcello Truzzi, as reported by Hilary Mantel on The London Review of Books:

First there are ‘proponents’, […] single-track obsessives […].

Anomalists’ […] seek to enhance scientific knowledge. Confronted with puzzling phenomena, they are willing to take an interdisciplinary approach, and realise that what is under investigation may not fit existing paradigms. They apply Occam’s razor, and try to test claims using existing methodology. They put the burden of proof on the claimant.

A third category, ‘mystery-mongers’, are ‘fundamentally unscientific’. They don’t really want explanations. What they are sceptical about is the scientific consensus. […]

Then there is another category, the large and familiar category of ‘scoffers’. Scoffers begin by assuming that anomalous phenomena are invalid. They are mentally rigid and doctrinaire, and insist that science – that wilting flower – is under threat from those who are not as good as they are at critical thinking […]

The crudity of public discourse means that the mystery-mongers and the scoffers get all the attention. The anomalists have history on their side

Categories
AGW catastrophism Omniclimate Science Skepticism

Mark Lynas, or the Translation of the Militant Warmist

What had resident AGW alarmist, I mean “environmental correspondent” Mark Lynas to say when New Statesman dared provide space to the skeptical words of award-winning science journalist and writer David Whitehouse?

Let’s see…:

Whitehouse got it wrong – completely wrong [hopefully he managed to get his data right? or his surname]

you won’t, by definition, see climate change from one year to the next – or even necessarily from one decade to the next…Note, however, the general direction of the red line over this quarter-century period [translation: “if it goes down it’s too short a period. if it goes up, it’s the right time window to see climate change“]

Whitehouse, and his fellow contrarians, are going to have to do a lot better than this if they want to disprove (or even dispute) the accepted theory of greenhouse warming. [translation: “I am not going to listen to anybody thinking different than I do“]

Newspapers and magazines have a difficult job of trying, often with limited time and information, to sort out truth from fiction on a daily basis [translation: “if it’s contrary to what I believe, it’s fiction“]

I give contrarians, or sceptics, or deniers (call them what you will) short shrift [translation: “I have so much faith in global warming, I cannot tell the difference between a sceptic and a denier…let’s offend the whole lot…“]

 as a close follower of the scientific debate on this subject I can state without doubt that there is no dispute whatsoever within the expert community as to the reality or causes of manmade global warming [how can anybody seriously believe “manmade global warming” is the most solid area of Science in the history of humanity, it escapes me…]

Good journalism should never exclude legitimate voices from a debate of public interest, but it also needs to distinguish between carefully-checked fact and distorted misrepresentations in complex and divisive areas like this [translation: “I will decide what should and should not be debated“]

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There definitely is one thing that distinguishes global warmers from sceptics. Sceptics do not get upset when something contrary to their belief is aired.

Categories
English Movies

The Best Thing about all Adam Sandler’s Movies

There’s this group of actors that are like recurring characters, appearing in all movies starring Adam Sandler. Somehow they are getting older together, obviously having fun making one movie or another.

Some of them (read: Rob Schneider, the extraordinary “Asian Minister” in “I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry“) are actually so much better in a supporting role, that one would hope a busier schedule by Mr Sandler would keep them away from egregiously bad movies

As for INPYCL…it’s gross, funny, painful and uplifting. A documentary more than a movie…it would be worth watching (but keep the kids away…) even if only for the Richard Chamberlain and Mary Pat Gleason cameos.

Too bad most critics simply “don’t get it”. Or perhaps I am just of the right age (i.e. most of the cast’s)??

Categories
Italiano Politica

Mastella e lo Strano Caso delle Curiose Coincidenze

10 Aprile 07: Mastella: “Con il referendum c’è la crisi di governo

16 Gennaio 08: Secondo il Calendario della Camera dei Deputati, il Ministro della Giustizia (Mastella) deve riferire sull’attività del suo dicastero.

16 Gennaio 08: Giusto quel giorno, partono gli avvisi di garanzia all’UDEUR. Dimissioni di Mastella.

16 Gennaio 08: L’ex-Presidente della Repubblica Scalfaro si chiede il motivo dell’urgenza dei provvedimenti della magistratura (il GIP, nella fretta, ha dovuto immediatamente ricusarsi).

16 Gennaio 08: La Corte Costituzionale approva il referendum. Mastella, occupato d’altro, non fa per il momento andare in crisi il governo. 

21 Gennaio 08: Mastella si decide a mandare in crisi il Governo. Perche’ proprio oggi?

21 Gennaio 08: Il Cardinale Bagnasco dice che l’Italia e’ un “Paese [che] si presenta sempre più sfilacciato“. Inutile immaginarsi a chi bisognerebbe rivolgersi per rimettere le cose a posto…

Categories
Economia Etica Italiano Politica

Marx e Nietzsche sui Comunisti Invidiosi

(a completamento del mio precedent blog: “Socialisti? Comunisti? Invidiosi!“)

(mille grazie ai mie amici M ed E per queste segnalazioni)

Sul tema dell’invidia come la base del socialismo e del comunismo come vengono intesi adesso (e anche: come sono stati implementati nei “Paesi Socialisti”, e nella forma che ricorre oggi sotto la forma dell'”ecologismo verde-rosso”), cominciamo da Karl Marx, che riguardo alle proposte egualitariste come quelle di Babeuf, rispondeva (nei “Manoscritti Economico-Filosofici del 1844“):

Il comunismo rozzo non è che il compimento di questa invidia e di questo livellamento partendo dalla rappresentazione minima. Esso ha una misura determinata e limitata. Proprio la negazione astratta dell’intero mondo della cultura e della civiltà, il ritorno alla semplicità innaturale dell’uomo povero e senza bisogno, che non solo non è andato oltre la proprietà privata ma non vi è neppure ancora arrivato, dimostrano quanto poco questa soppressione della proprietà privata sia un’appropriazione reale

Ecco invece Friedrich Nietzsche nell’Anti-cristo (#57):

Chi detesto di piu’ fra gli agitatori di oggi? Gli agitatori socialisti, gli apostoli del Chandala [da un nome per gli “intoccabili” dell’India], che minano l’istinto, il piacere, il senso di soddisfazione del lavoratore con la sua piccola esistenza-che lo rendono invidioso, che gli insegnano la vendetta. La fonte del torto non è mai diritti disuguali ma la richiesta di diritti ‘uguali’“.

Nietzsche si occupa del socialismo anche negli aforismi 446 e 473 del libro “Umano, troppo umano”.

Categories
English EU Politics UK

Britain, the European Union’s Half-Virgin

And so we see again another big debate in Britain about Europe, about the European Union, about the need to be part of it and the will to stay away from it. Some people will argue for a referendum limited to the EU Constitution-in-all-but-name, others will declare their intention to ask the populace if they want to stay in the EU at all. The smarter people in the two main political parties will try to postpone any decision, avoiding the risk of internal rifts, in the hope that the Irish will kill off the Constitution with their own referendum.

I have even heard former PM candidate William “The Vague” Hague dodge the question on what he wanted the country actually to do right now: one wonders what the “let’s stay in Europe but without the Constitution” people will say were the UK left to be the last one to ratify the so-called Lisbon Treaty (like, they had the courage to kill it anyway…).

With more than 10 years of UK residency behind me, this circus is becoming very boring. Somehow the UK wants to mantain a nominal independence AND lead or least stir Europe in the directions most convenient to itself. The practical result is that neither goal is ever achieved, and the best Downing Street can do is come back from Brussels with opt-out clauses, while the big scheme of things is dreamed up, directed and implemented from somewhere else.

I just wish there were a single, comprehensive referendum asking the British people the question: do you want a. to get completely out(1) of Europe or b. to engage within it fully (with the Euro and the “whole hog”)?

Then we could move to a different subject. And if the answer were b., we could finally see the UK at the forefront of the Continent, instead of occupying the position of Chief Sulker.

(1) Of course that’s an euphemism. With all the trade links between the UK and Europe, a wholly-disengaged Britain would turn into some kind of overtly rich Norway. Nominally “internal” legislation would then show up as faxes from Brussels with the latest EU directives, about which not a vote could be cast at all.

Categories
Data Omniclimate Science

January Warmth Weakens BBC Meteorologist's Logical Skills

How many times have we been told that “weather” is not “climate”, that a heatwave or a cold front or heavy winds or hurricanes or the lack thereof, can say absolutely nothing about the state of the global climate?

Lo and behold, here comes the BBC’s John Hammond in the current “Monthly Outlook” for the UK:

The predominance of south or southwesterly winds kept temperatures at or above average in many parts in the early days of 2007. This theme looks set to continue for a greater part of the next month.
This comes on the back of recently released figures for 2007, which showed that on a global level 2007 was the seventh warmest on record since 1850.

Should it really be necessary to tell a meteorologist that if local above-average temperatures are due to “south/southwesterly winds” THEN the only way to connect the temperatures to global warming would be by demonstrating a link between those winds, and that warming?

Furthermore: the Hadley Centre has not published yet the final figures for 2007. Data so far show sea-surface temperatures for 2007 to be the 9th on record, globally (the southern oceans have actually recorded in December the coolest value in 13 years).

UPDATE JAN 26: HadCRUT data now available up to December 2007

Categories
Droga Italiano Politica Sociologia

Il Miglior Motivo Per Evitare la Tossicodipendenza

Lasciamo perdere i pericoli per la salute, per la vita sociale, per il lavoro. Lasciamo anche perdere il rischio di finire prematuramente invecchiato e/o morto e/o in una stanza sporca e/o in prigione.

Il motivo migliore per evitare ogni tossicodipendenza (di qualsiasi genere di droga “illegale”) e’ che lo Stato e la societa’, inclusi il Governo, la vasta maggioranza dei Parlamentari, la maggior parte dei Giudici, tantissimi ufficiali di polizia e uno sterminato numero di concittadini ti vedranno come un sub-umano da maltrattare e che comunque si merita qualunque cosa gli capiti.

Quindi poco o niente aiuto pratico, zero comprensione, zero tolleranza, irragionevoli condanne alla prigione, terapie forzate di de-tossificazione, effettivo abbandono nelle “caritatevoli” mani dei trafficanti di droga ed il rischio di trovarsi magari senza le medicine necessarie e senza alcuna speranza di chiamare il proprio medico, in caso di arresto.

Forse questo è l’obiettivo inconscio della Guerra alle Droghe che stiamo perdendo da quasi 40 anni… il ricatto tra l’essere un “buon cittadino non-tossicodipendente”, o l’essere trattato come letame.

Categories
Drugs English Sociology

The Best Reason to Avoid Becoming a Drug Addict

Forget dangers for your health, for your social life, for your job. Forget the risk of ending up prematurely aged and/or dead and/or in a dirty room and/or in jail.

The best reason to avoid becoming a drug addict (of any kind of “illegal” drug) is that State and society, including the Government, the vast majority of Parliamentarians, most Justices, a good many Police officers and an overwhelming number of fellow citizens will see you as a sub-human to mistreat and anyway deserving whatever comes your way.

Hence little practical help, zero understanding, zero tolerance, absurd jail terms, forced detox therapies, effective abandonement into the “careful” hands of drug dealers, and the risk of finding oneself without the necessary medicines and any chance to call one’s doctor, in case of arrest.

Perhaps that’s the unconscious goal of the War on Drugs that we have been losing for almost 40 years…the blackmail of being either a non-addicted good citizen, or treated as dung.

Categories
English Immigration

And Then They Migrate…

Every day thousands upon thousands risk their lives to reach a richer country than theirs, sometimes by crossing deserts and/or open seas, willing to work but never welcomed.

Why do they do that?

For example, because:

The hidden cost of a precious stone by Chris Spence – IHT, December 26, 2007

ILAKAKA, Madagascar

[…] This city in the arid hinterlands of Madagascar’s Isalo National Park sprouted from nothingness, a kind of Third World Las Vegas.

[…] My second visit was a week later, when two local guides named Jean-Jacques and Roxy proposed a tour of the mines.

[…] Our three escorts were security men, paid to make sure the workers didn’t try to steal stones. I naïvely pointed out that they hardly had a pocket between them to hide a sapphire. Roxy explained that they swallowed them to recover them later in the toilet. Any misplaced gestures toward the head area would be dangerous for these workers. Scratching your chin could bring big trouble. The workers earn about 20,000 ariary a day – about 8 euros.

[…] Malagasy prospectors are often reduced to sinking vertical shafts, sometimes 15 meters deep, down which they lower themselves on a rope. These holes are no larger than a steering wheel and become tombs when they collapse. As Roxy dryly pointed out, this saves families the expense of burial.[…]

And those are the lucky ones: they have a job…

Categories
Cattolicesimo Clericalismo Cristianesimo Italia Italiano Papato Politica Vaticano

Il Papa Sbagliato

A fare due passi in rete si puo’ sperimentare un odio spaventoso contro questo Papa, sia come Papa sia (si ha l’impressione) come persona.

Un odio tutto italiano. E le ragioni del quale possono essere molte (a parte il solito anticlericalismo italiano di stampo veterocomunista: anche i tentativi maldestri di Giuliano Ferrara & c. di tirarlo dalla loro parte; la terribile campagna politica della CEI, prima con Ruini e ora con Bagnasco).

Io invece dico che e’ colpa del Papa stesso. Il quale dice e scrive molto, con il piccolo difetto pero’ che per capire cosa dice e scrive, bisogna sentirlo e leggerlo…per intero!

Che scandalo!! Un Papa che non fornisce frasi ad effetto, corte abbastanza da poter essere inscatolate in questo o quell’articolo???

E peggio per lui, allora: non potra’ che vedere i suoi messaggi arrivare completamente distorti in TV e sui giornali.

Il Papa dice che la pace si impara dai familiari? E invece i giornali scrivono “Il Papa difende la famiglia tradizionale“. Il Papa vuole presentare un accorato appello all’Universita’ italiana e a tutte le discipline scientifiche a non buttare via la “sapienza delle tradizioni religiose”? E invece tanti subito a denunciare un fantomatico tentativo del Papa di intromettersi in ogni angolo della cultura.

Mettiamo anche in mezzo il fatto che non e’ fotogenico, e’ un po’ vecchietto, non ha carisma e non viene granche’ bene in televisione. E ha il difetto di dire quello che pensa (orrore! orrore!): ed ecco pronta la rivelazione: al Conclave, hanno eletto il Papa sbagliato.

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Magari al prossimo Conclave sara’ possibile ottenere la consulenza di una societa’ di marketing, ed eleggere un Papa che potrebbe andare all’Isola dei Famosi

E invece chissa’…e se fosse sbagliata la cultura italiana del “messaggio istantaneo”, della “lettura in pillole”, che non vuole informarsi alle fonti originali?

Io le mie lezioni le ho imparate: e del Papa, sui giornali italiani di ogni forma e tipo, non leggero’ piu’. Se voglio ascoltarlo, andro’ a sentirlo e a leggerlo personalmente.

Categories
Economics English Ethics Political Economy Politics Sociology

Marx and Nietzsche on Socialism and Envy

Follow-up to my earlier blog: “Research Shows Socialism Is About Envy“:

(many thanks to my friends M and E for this)

First a quote from Karl Marx himself. I found it in extended length at the blog called “The Sentinel“:

Marx, in his much neglected Economic and Philosophic Manuscripts warned against […] what he termed “crude communism”. Crude communism “appears in a double form; the domination of material property looms so large that it aims to destroy everything which is incapable of being possessed by everyone as private property. It wishes to eliminate talent, etc., by force . . . The role of worker is not abolished but extended to all men. The relation of private property remains the relation of the community to the world of things . . . This communism, which negates the personality of man in every sphere is . . . Universal envy setting itself up as a power, is only camouflaged form of cupidity which re-establishes itself and satisfies itself in a different way. The thoughts of every individual private property are at least directed against any wealthier private property, in the form of envy and the desire to reduce everything to a common level; so that this envy and levelling in fact constitute the essence of competition. Crude communism is only the culmination of such envy and levelling-down on the basis of a preconceived minimum. How little this abolishing of private property represents a genuine appropriation is shown by the abstract negation of the whole world of culture and civilisation, and the regression to the unnatural simplicity of the poor and wantless individual who has not only not surpassed private property but has not even attained to it. The community is only a community of work and of equality of wages paid out by the communal capital, by the community as universal capitalists. The two sides of the relation are raised to a supposed universality; labour as a condition in which everyone is placed, and capital as the acknowledged universality and power of the community.

Marx was likely talking about Babeuf, but the idea of flattening everybody down to the lowest common poverty has come back into fashion (usually dressed up as “antiglobalization” or “environmentalism”).

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And now unto Friedrich Nietzsche, in The Anti-Christ (section #57):

Whom do I hate most among the rabble of today? The socialist rabble, the chandala apostles, who undermine the instinct, the pleasure, the worker’s sense of satisfaction with his small existence–who make him envious, who teach him revenge. The source of wrong is never unequal rights but the claim of “equal” rights.

Nietzsche was of course talking about Christians too, but that I’ll leave to another blog…

Categories
Cattolicesimo Clericalismo democrazia Europa Italiano Religione

Sarkozy…e gli Atei Devoti

Segnalo le pesantissime parole di Bernard Henry-Lévy nei confronti del Presidente francese Sarkozy, riportate sul Corriere della Sera del 16 gennaio 2008 in un articolo intitolato “Il cinismo religioso di Monsieur Sarkozy“:

“Possiamo infine dare atto al Presidente di sapere, molto precisamente, quello che dice; e allora non potremo evitare di fare l’accostamento con l’unica grande ideologia fran­cese che ha pensato il cattolice­simo come «cultura» alla qua­le non si è costretti a credere ma che come nessun’altra sug­gella, se solo le viene data in subappalto, la coesione di un legame sociale: il maurrassismo.”

Suggeriscono, quelle parole, che la brutta faccia della “devozione atea” possa stare tornando in auge in Francia come in Italia (dove pero’ Ferrara e Pera non sono Presidenti della Repubblica, almeno per il momento).

Henry-Lévy richiama il maurrassismo, ma avrebbe potuto riferirsi a de Maistre, Saint-Simon, e altri in una specie di “carrellata dell’infamia” di tutto lo sbagliato generato nel pensiero politico post-illuminista. Sono convinto che il passaggio dalla devozione atea al fascismo non solo sia breve, ma obbligato (quand’anche si tratti del fascismo relativamente “dolce” come quello di Salazar in Portogallo).

E che la “devozione atea” stessa sia un’offesa, anche per il credente, uno svuotamento del “contenuto della fede dalle sue radici vere” come detto dal Cardinale Mario F Pompedda nel numero di Jesus del Marzo 2006, riducendola “solo a una realtà esteriore.

E’ una sfida, quella lanciata dagli atei devoti e dai loro compagni di merenda clericali, che sembra non aver mai fine. E’ fatta di persone che per farne un paradiso rendono il mondo un inferno: ed e’ una sfida contro la quale ci tocchera’ comunque (e sempre?) combattere.

Categories
Filosofia Italiano Liberta' Nonviolenza Sociologia

Ogni Giorno, Un Canto di Natale Per l’Anima

Nel classico Canto di Natale di Charles Dickens, Ebenezer Scrooge e’ un uomo invecchiato, attaccato ai soldi e con un animo piu’ secco del peggior deserto, che poi trova la felicita’ e la redenzione morale solo dopo aver incontrato i Fantasmi dei Natali passati, presenti e futuri.

La maggior parte di noi non incontrera’ presenze cosi’ inquietanti: tuttavia, tutti corriamo il rischio di vedere le nostre vite appassire via in una grandinata di irritabilita’ e brontolii.

Fortunatamente, esiste un modo di recuperare come Scrooge la gioventu’ spirituale e l’entusiasmo: guardando pero’ i nostri “Fantasmi” interni, le parti strappate dal nostro Io pezzetto per pezzetto dal Tempo stesso.

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Mentre gli anni passano, infatti, i vari costituenti della nostra anima perdono la “sincronizzazione” l’uno con l’altro.

Alcune parti del nostro essere interno sopravvivono come retaggi del passato, transformandosi nel Fantasma Interno del Passato, l’”Ego Praeteritus“.

Altri elementi vivono nel Qui-e-Ora, costituendo il Fantasma Interno Attuale, l’”Ego Presens“. Altri ancora hanno loro base in quanto deve ancora venire, formando il Fantasma Interno Futuro, l’”Ego Posterus“.

Per esempio, donne ed automobili, veloci o lente che siano (da una felice battuta di un anonimo anglosassone), forniscono la prova migliore che un elemento importante delle nostre anime effettivamente vive nel presente. Infatti, una componente evidente dell’Ego Presens e’ il senso della moda: contemporaneo all’estremo, e costantemente in cambiamento, con guardaroba il cui contenuto viene rinnovato non solo dei vestiti logori ma anche di cio’ che e’ ormai impossibile da trovare, perche’ considerato “vecchio” di stile, anche se perfettamente “nuovo” di qualita’.

La bellezza femminile in qualche modo significa forme corporee che cambiano ogni decade, piu’ o meno, anche se i proprietari degli occhi che proverbialmente definiscono la bellezza stessa non muoiono tutti cosi’ spesso. Succede esattamente lo stesso per le automobili: date uno sguardo ai veicoli venduti 20 o 30 anni fa ed oltre, e “classici” a parte, vedrete delle scatole di metalle primitive e brutte, non certo le linee lucide, la qualita’ invitante ed i motori superiori delle odierne automobili (ahime’! esse stesse destinate a trasformarsi in brutte scatole di metallo… entro il 2027!).

La politica stessa non e’ immune dallo “spirito dei tempi”, lo Zeitgeist. Grandi dibattiti mondiali sembrano andare e venire, monopolizzanti per un istante, poi noiosi ed antiquati o noiosi ed ovvii a tutti (un’altra definizione dell’”essere alla moda”?).

Nel secolo passato si discuteva di colonialismo, imperialismo, protezionismo, fascismo, comunismo, democrazia e suffragio universale, le preoccupazioni per la Guerra Nucleare, liberta’ civili, poverta’, ambiente: al giorno d’oggi, tocca al l “riscaldamento globale”.

Siamo allora “cittadini dello Zeitgeist“? O “prigionieri dei nostri tempi“, con il nostro Ego Presens socialmente e commercialmente spinto a pensare “liberamente” quello che vuole il Consenso, e “volontariamente” desideroso di acquistare i gadgets piu’ alla moda?

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Non completamente.

La faccenda per esempio e’ molto diversa per i gusti musicali. Per qualche motivo, la maggior parte della gente consolida le preferenze melodiche fra le eta’ di 16 e 25 anni. Così se avete 50 anni dovrete probabilmente accettare che la vostra musica preferita e’ stata registrata almeno 25 anni fa ed e’ improbabile che mai riappaia nelle classifiche di vendita se non per periodi brevissimi.

Quello e’ un esempio di quanto costituisca l’Ego Praeteritus, il Fantasma Interno del Passato.

Altri esempi includono le amicizie che durano una vita, forgiate solitamente verso la fine degli anni dell’adolescenza, come chiunque abbia mai lasciato la citta’ natale puo’ facilmente attestare; e la maggior parte delle paure, incluse le fobie vere e proprie, acquisite forse nei primi 3 o 4 anni di vita (cosi’ come i legami familiari: solo una coincidenza?).

E naturalmente, siamo destinati a continuare ad accumulare memorie, quelle immagini e sensazioni condensate (e filtrate) in un bagaglio sempre piu’ pesante, capace di influenzare tutti i nostri pensieri ed azioni. Peggio: alcune parti dell’Ego Praeteritus sembrano diventare letargiche, se non proprio morte, intorno ai 16 anni (come detto da Benjamin Franklin).

Per esempio, a scomparire in tanti da quell’eta’ in poi sono le capacita’ di cambiare ed abbracciare l’innovazione. Che dire poi dell’impressione che l’eccellenza accademica invariabilmente coincida con l’anno della propria laurea; e che la moralita’ sia inevitabilmente in caduta libera dai tempi della propria gioventu’; e che la gioventu’ stessa vada sempre peggio, e mai sembri mostrare lo stesso rispetto di vecchi e genitori come quando uno era giovane?

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E’ nell’Ego Futurus che si risiede invece la vita, nei sogni stessi che ci mantengono vivi: come la speranza di arrivare a vedere un altro giorno, o i propri bambini vivere lungamente e prosperare; o anche solo la speranza di poter acquistare una qualunque cosa uno desideri. Qualunque il loro tipo, quei sogni sono l’ultima parte di noi a morire e senza di loro la vita sarebbe assolutamente senza scopo.

Ma le speranze e le aspettative non sono solamente radicate nell’avvenire: appartengono ad esso. L’adempimento dei nostri desideri puo’ essere cio’ cui noi pensiamo di stare aspirando, ma spesso, quando poi si avverano rimane un senso di vuoto. Non c’e’ bisogno di essere un astronauta al termine di una missione lunare, o un Leader mondiale in pensione per chiedersi quella che e’ la piu’ aperta, sconvolgente e disperata delle domande: “E adesso?.

Una domanda che tutti dovremo affrontare.

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Mentre il tempo passa, ed i sogni si avverano (o vengono abortiti), l’Ego Posterus, quella parte dell’anima che guarda al futuro puo’ solo sbiadire. Nel frattempo, l’Ego Praeteritus, quello del passato, si sviluppa sempre piu’ grande. Una parte sempre maggiore del nostro essere interno si ancora al passato, con una conseguente progressiva separazione dal “mondo reale” e dall’Ego Presens che sparisce lentamente.

Cio’ puo’ essere la piu’ forte indicazione dell’avere una mente anziana: quando l’anima non ha quasi piu’ nessun collegamento con il presente, o con il futuro.

Tristemente, quello e’ un percorso molto comune. Uno diventa lentamente ma costantemente piu’ “brontolone”, sempre pronto a crogiolarsi nei ricordi, invecchiato nello spirito anziche’ solamente nel corpo.

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Come si puo’ evitare di finire cosi’?

Forse una buona capacita’ di cancellare la memoria aiuterebbe. Ci sarebbe piu’ spazio per apprendere nuovi gusti musicali e come diventare una persona diversa.

Un modo piu’ pratico puo’ invece essere di diventare coscienti del fatto che le varie parti della propria anima non vivono necessariamente nella stessa epoca.

Accettando tutte le differenze interne anche ad un livello temporale, possiamo allora confrontare i nostri Ego del passato, presente e futuro, tutti i giorni, in un ringiovanente “viaggio temporale dello spirito”.

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E in effetti, sono proprio i Fantasmi del Natale passato, presente e futuro a riportare quel brontolone di Ebenezer Scrooge ad una vita piu’ felice, meglio connessa con il mondo esterno ed in pace con quanto e’ accaduto prima, quanto sta accadendo e quanto deve ancora avvenire.

Categories
AGW Omniclimate Science

Crackpots, Quacks, Baloney and Quotes on Skepticism

With the understandable, almost militant enthusiasm around AGW, I would like to remind everybody (skeptical or not of AGW) of three insightful lists of signs of a “scientific” theory being something “baloney” made up by “crackpots” or “quacks.

Plus some quotes by Carl Sagan on skepticism.

(1) “Trademarks of Crackpot Theories

(2) “Are you a quack?

(3) Sagan’s “Baloney’s Detection Kit

I am not saying anybody pro- or against AGW is espousing deranged hypotheses with no basis on reality. Still, it would be so much simpler if everybody (and I mean, everybody) compared their pet and/or collective thinking to the lists above.

No need to reinvent the wheel.

For example it would be nice to read that so-and-so theory is “baloney according to Sagan” because of this or that claim or behavior.

Or that persons supporting a particular theory are usually guilty of quack-signs number m, n and p.

And now with the quotes:

You can get into a habit of thought in which you enjoy making fun of all those other people who don’t see things as clearly as you do. We have to guard carefully against it.” – Carl Sagan, 1987 CSICOP meeting

People are not stupid. They believe things for reasons. The last way for skeptics to get the attention of bright, curious, intelligent people is to belittle or condescend or to show arrogance toward their beliefs.” – Carl Sagan

The chief deficiency I see in the skeptical movement is its polarization: Us vs. Them — the sense that we have a monopoly on the truth; that those other people who believe in all these stupid doctrines are morons; that if you’re sensible, you’ll listen to us; and if not, to hell with you. This is nonconstructive. It does not get our message across. It condemns us to permanent minority status.” – Carl Sagan