Live Microblogging of GWPF 2012 Annual Lecture with Prof Fritz Varenholt

The following are the ordered notes published live on Twitter at @mmorabito67 during the GWPF 2012 Annual Lecture with Prof Fritz Varenholt, at the Royal Society building in London on June 13, 2012:

  • Benny Peiser starts right on time. Around 200 or more in attendance. Full house.
  • Peiser describes the environmental credentials of Varenholt. Reaction to Seveso, early Green.
  • Lecture starts with reference to upcoming #Euro2012 Germany match tonight.
  • Varenholt says he passed from green hero to doubtful scientist. Ironic but expected.
  • Varenholt mentions feeling of suppressed knowledge upon seeing LIA disappeared
  • Lots of dry humor
  • Varenholt talks of own experience with wind power company. Wind index in Germany shown highly correlating with NAO
  • Wind in Spain anticorrelated to NAO. Doubt on IPCC starting there. Then flattened temps since 1998
  • Standard Answer climate is 30y not 14y but then why the stoppage? Shows longer term graphs with temp increases
  • Varenholt mentions increase in CO2 and solar activity. Then #IPCC diagram of sensitivity. Says CO2 influences climate change
  • Varenholt says “solely the degree of influence is disputed”. IPCC had to introduce an “amplifier” for CO2 effect.
  • CO2 and temps shown correlating only between 1977 and 1998. Why not other periods?
  • Hockey Stick used with Gore’s movie in 000′s DVDs free to Germans to show people AGW real.
  • Mentions #Gergis trying to revive a ghost even Mann has renounced to
  • Now for natural cycles on the centennial scale and longer. Steinhilber 2009, Ljunquist 2010 with #MWP and #LIA -
  • Synchronicity between solar activity and temps in North Atlantic in Bond (2001) but Rahmstorf high priest against it
  • Shows 18 papers all over the world all finding what Bond 2001 found eg Kemp 2012
  • Example Liu et al 2011 Tibet with mwp and lia and forecast of no warming to 2200.
  • Chinese papers can also show what the government approves so even more interesting
  • Solar activity correlates with historical events too since 1600. Eg French revolution and scarce food
  • Solar cycle 24 current weak like cycle 5 of french revolution
  • People dismiss solar activity by considering #TSI which changes very little
  • However UV solar activity changes by 70% – no physical explanation how Sun influences climate change though
  • Varenholt explains possible mechanism with solar magnetic field shielding cosmic rays
  • Shows decrease in cosmic rays reaching earth during 20th century then slightly increasing after 2000
  • Mash Svensmark 2003 showing correlation between low-hanging clouds and solar activity
  • 60y cycle in Pacific #PDO warm phase between 1977 and 2006. Says AGW trend is underlining natural cycles
  • Critique of flawed temp graph with shortening timespans
  • Varenholt forecasts 0.5C by 2100 prolonging AGW trend minus natural oscillations
  • Kyoto efforts only 15% of emitters EU + ANZ. All for compensating 8 weeks of Chinese development
  • Speed of transformation in Germany “exaggerated” ie uselessly overambitious
  • Effort on photovoltaic energy maximum now that it’s the most expensive
  • €8B collected from all and given to wealthier people so transfer from poor to rich
  • Wind and solar not on-demand so lower reliability and more need for storage.
  • Germany forced to pay Netherlands to provide electricity to the Dutch. €100M per year.
  • Ethics Commission of bishops and sociologists suggested converting energy into H2 then methane. V. expensive
  • In 2050 Germany needs 230 times more storage capacity – compares to Constance Lake brought up in mountains
  • Problem of additional grid needed. Lots of it.
  • Summary: good news. Sun gives time to change energy system. Catastrophism has been used to justify madness.
  • Sacrificing forests for wind turbines is a very bad thing for nature.
  • Speaks of a climate of fear. Conventional always part of good energy mix alongside renewables
  • Current efforts not SUSTAINABLE. (Key sentence for the night?)
  • Final phrase of “it’s the sun stupid”
  • I asked how to communicate with greenies. Also other q on how to increase number of people “on road to.Damascus”
  • Varenholt mentions building trust. Communication via newspapers where everybody should be involved in discussions.
  • Politicians react to emotions in people.
  • Engineers need be more involved in discussions also political
  • Czech ambassador asks about abandonment of nuclear in Germany. Another q on carbon cost of renewables
  • Nuclear abandoned even if tsunami danger minimal. Political will.
  • Steel carbon recovered in 6 months. Solar 5 times more.
  • Solar not sustainable apart from in a new DDR
  • Don Keeler asks why greens against shale gas. Varenholt says it’s the game changer. Poland will definitely exploit it.
  • 400y of gas between Wales and Bielorussia. Environmentalists pushed moratorium but Varenholt says we’ll need shale gas later.
  • Huge amounts in China too. Gas will level volatility. But too cheap for wind and solar.
  • Carbon tax would kill photovoltaic if all subsidies removed unless very very high.
  • Ends with Lord #Lawson reminding what GWPF is about.
  • Says Varenholt pointed out how.uncertainty means correct policy difficult to identify.
  • Praises Varenholt for being able to.change mind according to.evidence
  • Hopes book will be translated. Says models obviously wrong.