Day: June 14, 2012

The following are the ordered notes published live on Twitter at @mmorabito67 during the GWPF 2012 Annual Lecture with Prof Fritz Varenholt, at the Royal Society building in London on June 13, 2012:

• Benny Peiser starts right on time. Around 200 or more in attendance. Full house.
• Peiser describes the environmental credentials of Varenholt. Reaction to Seveso, early Green.
• Lecture starts with reference to upcoming #Euro2012 Germany match tonight.
• Varenholt says he passed from green hero to doubtful scientist. Ironic but expected.
• Varenholt mentions feeling of suppressed knowledge upon seeing LIA disappeared
• Lots of dry humor
• Varenholt talks of own experience with wind power company. Wind index in Germany shown highly correlating with NAO
• Wind in Spain anticorrelated to NAO. Doubt on IPCC starting there. Then flattened temps since 1998
• Standard Answer climate is 30y not 14y but then why the stoppage? Shows longer term graphs with temp increases
• Varenholt mentions increase in CO2 and solar activity. Then #IPCC diagram of sensitivity. Says CO2 influences climate change
• Varenholt says “solely the degree of influence is disputed”. IPCC had to introduce an “amplifier” for CO2 effect.
• CO2 and temps shown correlating only between 1977 and 1998. Why not other periods?
• Hockey Stick used with Gore’s movie in 000’s DVDs free to Germans to show people AGW real.
• Mentions #Gergis trying to revive a ghost even Mann has renounced to
• Now for natural cycles on the centennial scale and longer. Steinhilber 2009, Ljunquist 2010 with #MWP and #LIA –
• Synchronicity between solar activity and temps in North Atlantic in Bond (2001) but Rahmstorf high priest against it
• Shows 18 papers all over the world all finding what Bond 2001 found eg Kemp 2012
• Example Liu et al 2011 Tibet with mwp and lia and forecast of no warming to 2200.
• Chinese papers can also show what the government approves so even more interesting
• Solar activity correlates with historical events too since 1600. Eg French revolution and scarce food
• Solar cycle 24 current weak like cycle 5 of french revolution
• People dismiss solar activity by considering #TSI which changes very little
• However UV solar activity changes by 70% – no physical explanation how Sun influences climate change though
• Varenholt explains possible mechanism with solar magnetic field shielding cosmic rays
• Shows decrease in cosmic rays reaching earth during 20th century then slightly increasing after 2000
• Mash Svensmark 2003 showing correlation between low-hanging clouds and solar activity
• 60y cycle in Pacific #PDO warm phase between 1977 and 2006. Says AGW trend is underlining natural cycles
• Critique of flawed temp graph with shortening timespans
• Varenholt forecasts 0.5C by 2100 prolonging AGW trend minus natural oscillations
• Kyoto efforts only 15% of emitters EU + ANZ. All for compensating 8 weeks of Chinese development
• Speed of transformation in Germany “exaggerated” ie uselessly overambitious
• Effort on photovoltaic energy maximum now that it’s the most expensive
• €8B collected from all and given to wealthier people so transfer from poor to rich
• Wind and solar not on-demand so lower reliability and more need for storage.
• Germany forced to pay Netherlands to provide electricity to the Dutch. €100M per year.
• Ethics Commission of bishops and sociologists suggested converting energy into H2 then methane. V. expensive
• In 2050 Germany needs 230 times more storage capacity – compares to Constance Lake brought up in mountains
• Problem of additional grid needed. Lots of it.
• Summary: good news. Sun gives time to change energy system. Catastrophism has been used to justify madness.
• Sacrificing forests for wind turbines is a very bad thing for nature.
• Speaks of a climate of fear. Conventional always part of good energy mix alongside renewables
• Current efforts not SUSTAINABLE. (Key sentence for the night?)
• Final phrase of “it’s the sun stupid”
• I asked how to communicate with greenies. Also other q on how to increase number of people “on road to.Damascus”
• Varenholt mentions building trust. Communication via newspapers where everybody should be involved in discussions.
• Politicians react to emotions in people.
• Engineers need be more involved in discussions also political
• Czech ambassador asks about abandonment of nuclear in Germany. Another q on carbon cost of renewables
• Nuclear abandoned even if tsunami danger minimal. Political will.
• Steel carbon recovered in 6 months. Solar 5 times more.
• Solar not sustainable apart from in a new DDR
• Don Keeler asks why greens against shale gas. Varenholt says it’s the game changer. Poland will definitely exploit it.
• 400y of gas between Wales and Bielorussia. Environmentalists pushed moratorium but Varenholt says we’ll need shale gas later.
• Huge amounts in China too. Gas will level volatility. But too cheap for wind and solar.
• Carbon tax would kill photovoltaic if all subsidies removed unless very very high.
• Ends with Lord #Lawson reminding what GWPF is about.
• Says Varenholt pointed out how.uncertainty means correct policy difficult to identify.
• Praises Varenholt for being able to.change mind according to.evidence
• Hopes book will be translated. Says models obviously wrong.