Categories
AGW catastrophism Climate Change Culture Data Dissent Global Warming IPCC Omniclimate Policy Politics Science

Complete Microblogging Of Tonight's Pielke Jr vs Ward vs Muir Wood London Debate

I have left less than one hour ago the Royal Institution in London where a debate has taken place with Roger Pielke Jr, Bob Ward and Robert Muir Wood moderated by the Guardian’s James Randerson. I will blog with more details in the next few days or maybe even tonight: for now, you can read the whole thing as microblogged live by me on Twitter starting from here.

There has been a remarkable consensus and at one point it even looked like they were going to kiss each other.  For example everybody agreed the IPCC procedures must be considerably changed before next report is out…

ps please note that my main (English) account on Twitter remains “omnologos”.

ADDENDUM 1: my Ordered Notes About The Pielke Jr vs Ward vs Muir Wood London Debate

ADDENDUM 2: thanks to Steven McIntyre for pointing to the MP3 of the debate (there’s even me asking a question between 55:08 and 55:29) (I have been trying to post these links at Pielke Jr’s blog but no luck so far)

ADDENDUM 3: Josh has a cartoonist’s report of the debate at Bishop Hill. Also, more live tweets of the events are available from Christine Ottery and Tony Plant.

ADDENDUM 4: More blogs on the topic: Chris Cooper at Samizdata.net, Amelia Gregory at Amelia’s Magazine

Categories
AGW Climate Change Data Omniclimate Science

Bering Strait: Cryosphere Today vs Real World

Thanks to NASA’s Earth Observatory site, a (rare?) opportunity to compare Arctic sea ice extension as shown on Cryosphere Today with the real world (as seen by the Terra satellite).

DISCLAIMER: The following should in no way be interpreted as suggesting anything untoward is being done at Cryosphere Today

The Earth Observatory’s “Image of the Day” for Jan 16, 2010 shows “Ice and Clouds in the Bering Strait“.

Ice and Clouds in the Bering Strait
Fig. 1 - Ice and Clouds in the Bering Strait

What are we looking at? The shapes of the islands clearly indicate it’s the sea between the Russian and Alaska coasts just to the South of St Lawrence Island.

St Lawrence Island
Fig. 2 - St Lawrence Island
Part of the Bering Strait (from Google Maps)
Fig. 3 - Part of the Bering Strait (from Google Maps)
Part of the Bering Strait (from Google Maps)
Fig. 4 - Part of the Bering Strait (from Google Maps)

Let’s take now the sea ice extent image from Cryosphere Today, for Jan 16, 2010, and zoom in to the area described above:

Cryosphere Today, Jan 16, 2010
Fig. 5 -Cryosphere Today, Jan 16, 2010
Detail from Cryosphere Today, Jan 16, 2010
Fig. 6 - Detail from Cryosphere Today, Jan 16, 2010
Detail from Cryosphere Today, Jan 16, 2010
Fig. 7 - Detail from Cryosphere Today, Jan 16, 2010

We can finally compare Fig. 7 with Fig. 1.

Ice and Clouds in the Bering Strait
Fig. 1 - Ice and Clouds in the Bering Strait

What is evident is that the Cryosphere Today processing eliminates the kind of ice that can be found right at the edge of the pack (visible as “dendrils” after a suitable magnification). The neat sea ice – open water distinction is a computational illusion.

"wavy tendrils—newly formed, thin sea ice"
Fig. 8 - "wavy tendrils—newly formed, thin sea ice"

Other evidence of missing sea ice from the Cryosphere Today image is along the Alaskan coast, for example in the black, apparently ice-free “shadow” of Nunivak island

Nunivak Island
Fig. 9 - Nunivak Island
Cryosphere Today, around Nunivak Island
Fig. 10 - Cryosphere Today, around Nunivak Island
Nunivak Island, Jan 16, 2010
Fig. 11 - Nunivak Island, Jan 16, 2010

Seemingly, the ice around the island is “broken up” by its presence, and for some reason disappears in a restricted area in the Cryosphere Today image.

So the question is…how much of this “marginal” ice is lost in Cryosphere Today compared to the real world?