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Christofides and Mamassis (Koutsoyannis) Against AGW

Two of Koutsoyannis’ co-authors (here and here) have contacted me today providing a link to their HK Climate website, designed the old-fashioned way with a Start page and an Epilogue (and About).

The two Koutsoyannis et al.’s are of course the papers arguing that climate models “won’t reproduce the local climate” and any “statement that the predictions would work at [a] longer distance scales is unsupported” (in the words of Luboš).

HK Climate has definitely been written for non-specialists. A couple of quotes:

  • (from the Start page) “we maintain that there is no reason whatsoever to worry about man-made climate change, because there is no evidence whatsoever that such a thing is happening
  • (from the Epilogue page) “Climate is equally uncertain at all zoom levels. In fact, mathematical analysis of the climate indicates that its behaviour is such that the uncertainty is the maximum possible at all zoom levels. This maximisation of uncertainty at all scales is called the Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour of climatic processes. Nature loves uncertainty, and it fools us in two ways: on the one hand we wouldn’t be able to predict the future of climate, even if we fully knew the natural laws that govern it, because of chaos; and on the other hand, we can’t be very certain of the statistically expected behaviour of climate which is based on our observations of the past, because of the Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour.”

0 replies on “Christofides and Mamassis (Koutsoyannis) Against AGW”

An interesting paper from outside climate science, which argues that the underlying problem with climate models.

Climate models assume that while we can’t predict weather more than a few days in advance, over time the prediction errors will “average out” leading to reliable climate forecasts.

The HK process (chaos) argues that no such averaging in possible. That climate shows no such averaging over time. No matter what time scale is used, no averaging is observed in the historical record.

Thus while the climate models can be made to match the past at one scale through curve fitting, when you change the scale there is no match. Unable to predict the past reliably they do not predict the future.

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