Categories
AGW catastrophism Climate Change CO2 Emissions Culture Global Warming Humor Omniclimate Policy Politics Science Skepticism

Explanation For BBC Science News Webpage's Climate Change Policy

Having carefully watched the BBC “Science & Environment” news web page for several weeks now, I am inclined to identify the following as their underlying “Climate Change” reporting policy:

  1. No day shall pass without at least one climate-change-related link somewhere on that page
  2. Reporting on scientific articles supporting AGW will be strictly confined to a slight change of the original press release with the smallest and most inconsequential of doubt and criticism in the results
  3. Whatever Prince Charles or any other environmental celebrity has to say will be considered worthy of publication
  4. No such luck for anything not supporting AGW, however authoritative the source.
  5. Point 4 will not apply once a quarter or so, in order to demonstrate “balanced reporting”
  6. No climate change link will be considered too trivial to report
  7. There will be links to Richard Black’s blog
  8. There will be no link to the BBC’s own “Climate Change – The Blog of Bloom” blog. After all, it does make fun of AGW

And so there goes my licence money at work supporting the fight against the destruction of the world by evil SUV drivers…

Categories
AGW catastrophism Climate Change Culture Dissent Freedom Global Warming Humor Omniclimate Policy Politics Science Skepticism

Either The Best BBC Climate Blog…

…or their way of “showing impartiality”?

In any case, the BBC’s “Climate Change – The Blog of Bloom” is well worth an entry in one’s RSS feeds list.

And the authors there are quite humorous and far, far less the self-conscious, bordering-on-pompous, depressive types like Roger Harrabin and Richard Black.

For a couple of suggestions, start from these:

Carbon-neutral adventurers find reason to love oil tanker

Giant trees decline in Yosemite: climate change may, or equally may not be to blame

Sacked climate minister reveals somewhat unsurprising support for state aid

——–

Now…can “The Blog of Bloom” really be used to demonstrate the impartiality of the BBC in the climate debate? I am afraid it cannot. See, there is no link to it, and there has never been, into the “Science and Environment” section of the BBC News website.

Categories
Berlusconi Italia Italiano Partito Democratico PdL Politica

Il Vero Schifo Della Politica Italiana…

…non e’ Franceschini che si dipietrizza ogni giorno di piu’, tanto che ci manca poco vada a sputare sulle tombe dei genitori di Berlusconi, ma e’ vedere la politica trasformata in una processione di Catoni pronti a richedere l’integerrimita’ del Leader, mentre invece i milioni di evasori fiscali e quelli che si vendono a fine anno per un panettone invece di fare il loro lavoro, per esempio, magicamente non esistono piu’.

Saro’ smemorato ma non ricordo che gli Italiani fossero ispirati a cosi’ tanta onesta’ quando c’erano De Gasperi o Pertini…chissa’…

Categories
Astronomy Astronomy & Space English NYRB Science Space

The Large Hadron Collider Can Destroy Our World Indeed

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) currently awaiting to be turned on at CERN in Geneva will not destroy the Earth. But it can destroy our world: by detecting definitive evidence for so-called “dark matter”.

Current cosmology indicates that the total amount of “dark matter” may be five times the amount of “normal” matter. As reported by Freeman Dyson on the New York Review of Books, the LHC is expected to find that “dark matter” is composed of the “supersymmetrical” equivalents of ordinary matter.

If the above is confirmed, it may be the first step towards making the world we experience as vanishing and irrelevant as a ghost in the desert at midday.

For all we know, there is a wholly separate “universe”, a “material world” coexisting with everything we can touch and see, with a lot more mass than ours, and getting by without much interaction with our “material world”, apart from gravity perhaps.

Imagine a “dark matter telescope” showing a completely different sky. Like Nicole Kidman’s character in “The Others”, it will be the revelation that the ghosts, it’s us.

And Plato would be very proud of himself.

Categories
AGW catastrophism Climate Change Data Global Warming History Omniclimate Science

In Case You Missed It…Going By Car To The North Pole

Russian motorists drive to North Pole

27.04.2009

Russian motorists have reached the North Pole for the first time in an Arctic expedition. The new record has been set by a team of seven Russians. They set out for the Pole from the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago on two experimental Russian-made YEMELYA cars on the 20th of March, covered over 1,100 kilometres on pack ice, and reached the earth’s northern pole on Sunday, the 26th of April. The jubilant team of seasoned travellers is now receiving congratulations from across Russia.

=====

not exactly your average SUV but still…the vehicles look quite heavy, therefore the underlying ice must have been quite solid…

Who knows why Richard Black or Roger Harrabin don’t appear interested in the effort?

Categories
English Ethics Skepticism UK

Simon Singh’s Unfortunate Mistake

I do not think Simon Singh‘s loss in the libel case brought by the British Chiropractic Association can be reversed.

If Singh’s original sentence was the following (the article has been withdrawn)

[The BCA] is the respectable face of the chiropractic profession and yet it happily promotes bogus treatments

then the implication that the BCA is knowingly promoting bogus treatment could hardly have been spelled out more clearly.

People may argue about the opportunity for the BCA to throw itself into what was obviously going to be a high-profile case.

But if they had left Singh’s words unchallenged, surely at the BCA itself they could have open the floodgates to legal actions by unhappy clients…and especially unhappy had they learned that the BCA did not believe in its treatments.

There is a general consensus that English libel laws are just unfair and can be used in lieu of censorship. But Singh wasn’t exactly born yesterday, and must have know those laws for a long time.

Categories
AGW Climate Change Culture Global Warming Omniclimate Politics Science Skepticism

Mooney, or The Tragedy Of The Virginal AGW Believer

Thomas Richard at Climate Change Fraud links (using what might be unfortunate and wholly un-necessary homophobic undertones) to Chris Mooney’s rather unusual “Thanks for the Traffic, Morano” blog.

Mooney’s contribution to the global consciousness contains pearls of literature like the following:

So…my last post, “The Deniers’ Last Stand,” has had quite a lot of incoming traffic from ClimateDepot. I guess Marc Morano over there somehow thinks I help him make his point

It must be the first time ever that somebody has in any way lamented somebody else’s incoming link to his blog…

Anyway…I find it telling that Mooney is surprised by the amount of traffic coming from ClimateDepot, and feels the need to write: “So Mark: Let’s keep linking to each other“.

What it is telling is that usually Mooney, like several other AGWers I have met in all these years debating the topic, cannot even contemplate providing his readers with links to non-AGW sites. Because he disagrees with their content to the point of pretending it does not actually exist.

It’s an attitude reminding at the same time of an inferiority complex, childishness, an urge to censor, and/or a fear of reading anything not singing one’s own tune, lest the virginal eyes of the AGW believers be poisoned by non-conforming writings.

Time will tell which of the above interpretations is correct.

Categories
Climate Change Global Warming Omniclimate

Is Monbiot Now A Supporter Of Big Oil?

a guest blog by Geoff Chambers

George Monbiot has just published a new blog on Guardian Environment in his long-running series: “Scientists Say It’s Even Worse Than We Thought”, quoting “the world’s most sophisticated models” devised by “the world’s finest minds” as saying that global temperatures will rise 5.2C by 2100.

What makes this particular rant interesting is his source – the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model. The final paragraph of the MIT News article which Monbiot cites reads:

This work was supported in part by grants from the Office of Science of the U.S. Dept. of Energy, and by the industrial and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.

And if you go to the website of the latter organisation, you discover that their industrial sponsors include Exxon, Shell, BP, and Total. So Monbiot no longer believes that being financed by Big Oil automatically taints your research results. Which is fine.

Monbiot is an intelligent man who has been known to admit in public to changing his mind before (on nuclear power and bio-fuels, for example). But it does mean that twenty years of trashing climate scepticism – on the grounds that its funding sources make it suspect – has to be thown in the bin.

I’ve made this point in the comments to the article, but I’m being heavily moderated on Comment is Free and most of my comments are refused without explanation. I invite your readers to go to Comment is Free and join in what should be an epic battle (or pub brawl, knowing Guardian Climate Change discussions).

Categories
Berlusconi Italia Italiano Londra PdL Picchi Politica

Comunicato Stampa: Documento fondativo Coordinamento Cittadino per Londra – Popolo della Liberta’

COORDINAMENTO CITTADINO PER LONDRA
COORDINAMENTI PER LA GRAN BRETAGNA
POPOLO DELLA LIBERTA’

COMUNICATO STAMPA

DOCUMENTO FONDATIVO

La nostra Italia e’ davanti alla prima grande sfida politica del terzo millenio, una sfida che vogliamo vincere: e’ nato il piu grande partito moderato che la Storia repubblicana ricordi. Talmente grande da chiamarsi Popolo e non piu’ partito.

Il Popolo della Liberta’ e’ nato dalla liberta’, nella liberta’ e per la liberta’, perche’ l’Italia sia sempre piu’ moderna, libera, giusta, prospera, autenticamente solidale. Un’Italia dove la politica sia al servizio dei cittadini e non i cittadini al servizio della politica. Dove la politica sia fondata piu’ sui valori che sugli interessi. Dove l’attivismo politico sia dedicato alla virtu’, al senso civico, allo Stato di Diritto.

Anche a Londra e nella Gran Bretagna, crocevia della globalizzazione, i rappresentanti del Popolo della Liberta’ hanno deciso di dar vita a una serie di Coordinamenti Cittadini locali. Forti del sostegno istituzionale garantito dalla nomina dell’On. ALDO DI BIAGIO a Responsabile per gli Italiani nel Mondo per il PdL, e forti del contributo quotidiano dell’On. Guglielmo Picchi, eletto per il PdL nella Circoscrizione Europa, abbiamo intrapreso dunque il nostro lavoro stabilendo di intervenire in tutte le espressioni della Comunita’ Italiana .

A tal fine, come rappresentanti locali del Popolo della Liberta’, riuniti in data 28 Aprile 2009 nella prima sessione della Fase Costituente, abbiamo affidato alle seguenti persone i relativi incarichi componenti il Coordinamento Cittadino di Londra:

Cav. Vincenzo Zaccarini – coordinatore;
Dott. Ezio Fabiani – vice-coordinatore;
Ing. Maurizio Morabito – addetto stampa e comunicazioni;
Ing. Lorenzo Casarosa – tesoriere;
Dott. Marzia Carissimo Gibbs – segretario.

E’ stato anche accordato l’affidamento di deleghe tematiche in base alle qualita’ espresse dai membri del nuovo soggetto politico:

Ing. Maurizio Morabito e Mr. John Maddalena: stampa, comunicazione e web;
Comm. Girolamo Cancilla: immigrazione e affari sociali;
Cav. Vincenzo Zaccarini: rapporti istituzionali;
Dott. Ilaria Filippi e Mr. Anselmo Mura: professionisti e business club;
Marchese Lanfranco Lepri: imprenditoria;
Dott. Filippo Gaddo: energia e ambiente;
Dott. Marzia Carissimo Gibbs: scuola, donne e pari opportunita’;
Dott. Ezio Fabiani: giovani, cultura e sport.

Il Comitato Cittadino di Londra si occupera’ della zona meridionale dell’Inghilterra, a Sud di una linea ideale che va da Londra a Bristol. Per il resto della Gran Bretagna gli incarichi sono i seguenti:

Birmingham (e Inghilterra centrale, piu’ il Galles):
Comm. Girolamo Cancilla – coordinatore

Manchester (e Inghilterra settentrionale):
Ing. Alberto Bertali – coordinatore

Scozia:
Ing. Alberto Bertali – coordinatore

Come da Statuto, come Coordinamento Cittadino ci affidiamo adesso all’On. ALDO DI BIAGIO per la nomina del Delegato Nazionale per il Regno Unito.

Riconoscendo inoltre il fondamentale ruolo dell’On. Mirko Tremaglia, sia per la sua battaglia decennale per i diritti di voto degli Italiani all’estero, sia per la fondazione di un’importante realta’ per la comunita’ degli Italiani nel Mondo (il Comitato Tricolore Italiani nel Mondo – CTIM), come Coordinamento Cittadino chiediamo altresi’ supporto al CTIM, nella persona del Coordinatore Europeo Cons. Oreste Motta, al fine di dare vita alla la “CONSULTA SOCIALE”, che sappia raccogliere la migliore espressione dell’Associazionismo Italiano a Londra.

Tale Consulta dovra’ includere un rappresentante di ogni associazione italiana presente a Londra che abbia interesse a stabilire un dialogo con il PdL per la formulazione delle iniziative sociali, culturali e di scambio internazionale, ed adottera’ un regolamento indipendente e un coordinamento autonomo dal PdL.

La Consulta (che auspichiamo si riunisca con decorrenza trimestrale) permettera’ al Coordinamento Cittadino di mantenere costante il rapporto con la comunita’, in qualunque sua espressione sociale, culturale e/o professionale: perche’ noi, Popolo della Liberta’, donne ed uomini di Londra, orgogliosi di essere cittadini di uno dei Paesi piu’ avanzati del mondo, contiamo di consolidare, con il nostro personale e libero contributo, il nostro doppio legame: con l’Italia e con gli italiani ovunque essi si trovino.

La Consulta (che auspichiamo si riunisca con decorrenza trimestrale) permettera’ al Coordinamento Cittadino di mantenere costante il rapporto con la comunita’, in qualunque sua espressione sociale, culturale e/o professionale: perche’ noi, Popolo della Liberta’, donne ed uomini di Londra, orgogliosi di essere cittadini di uno dei Paesi piu’ avanzati del mondo, contiamo di consolidare, con il nostro personale e libero contributo, il nostro doppio legame: con l’Italia e con gli italiani ovunque essi si trovino.

Londra, 20 maggio 2009
Coordinamento Cittadino Per Londra
Coordinamenti Per La Gran Bretagna – Popolo Della Liberta’

Per ulteriori informazioni:
Cav. Vincenzo Zaccarini – coordinatore –
vincenzo_zaccarini@hotmail.com

Ing. Maurizio Morabito – addetto stampa e comunicazioni –
maurizio@morabito.name

Categories
Giustizia Italia Italiano Politica

Perche’ Non Postare Foto Di Bambini Su Internet? Ecco Perche’

Non e’ giusto pubblicare foto di bambini su internet. E cio’ non ha niente a che fare con la pedofilia.

Ogni volta che si parla di bambini e di internet si finisce con il nominare la pedofilia. ma non e’ su quello che si basa il mio ragionamento.

Il punto e’ che ciascuno deve essere libero di stabilire (al massimo possibile) quale informazione, e quale immagine di se’ finisca nel gran calderone che e’ internet, perche’ appena qualcosa viene postato, viene subito ricopiato in tantissimi server e non c’e’ nessun modo di “cancellarlo”.

Ora, se io facessi delle foto a un tizio e poi le andassi a mettere su un forum qualunque senza neanche dirglielo, quegli potrebbe anche non essere molto contento della mia iniziativa. e giustamente. Mi direbbe che per correttezza dovrei prima chiedergli il permesso, specie se e’ un forum dove egli abitualmente non vada.

Nel caso di un bambino, questa richiesta di permesso e’ impossibile, perche’ per definizione il bambino non puo’ rispondere e dare la propria autorizzazione (non potendo rendersi conto di cosa sia Internet).

E quindi l’unica soluzione se si vuole essere corretti, rispettare il bambino adesso e dargli un po’ piu’ di scelta nel futuro e’ non pubblicare alcuna foto di alcun bambino.

Categories
Climate Change CO2 Emissions Global Warming Omniclimate Policy Politics

AGWer, Cura Te Ipsum

Looks like milions in the UK have already been emitting much less than a whole bunch of AGWers…and without even having to change their lifestyles!

Which ministry is least green? The one that runs climate change

[…] The [UK Department for Energy and Climate Change] DECC, which is responsible for promoting energy efficiency in the country and is housed in Whitehall Place in London, scored a G, the lowest on a seven-point energy performance scale for its buildings […]

There is actually a more serious message there. Governments serious about climate change will be noticeable by the fact that they will stop preaching to the unwashed and concentrate on reducing emissions on a grand scale, in their buildings and facilities that is.

Categories
Climate Change Culture Freedom Global Warming History Omniclimate Politics

Greenies As Modern-Day Hitlerites

And it’s not even my idea…

From the BBC’s Climate Change – The Blog of Bloom
Hitler: the green movement’s German shepherd?
by Shanta Barley

Ever wondered why it is that Germany […] is so far ahead of the rest of the world in the race to be green?

According to Lord Anthony Giddens’ latest book, ‘The Politics of Climate Change‘ and a number of respected historians, Hitler may have given Germany a head-start. Not only did he pass the most stringent and comprehensive environmental protection law in the world at that time, but he also had a soft spot for vegetarianism, organic nibbles and animal welfare (up until the point when he poisoned his doting German Shepherd, Blondi, that is).

The Nazi “ecologists” […] had the aim of preventing damage to the environment in undeveloped areas, protecting forests and animals and reducing air pollution.’

Incredibly, it gets even juicier than one could have ever dreamed

[…] the Nazis, […] says Peter Staudenmaier, co-author of the book ‘Ecofascism’ were ‘conscious promoters and executors of a vile program explicitly dedicated to inhuman racist violence, massive political repression and worldwide military domination. Their “ecological” involvements, far from offsetting these fundamental commitments, deepened and radicalized them‘. […]

Categories
Climate Change Global Warming Humor Omniclimate Sun

NASA Spends Three Billion Dollars To Manufacture Fake Sunspots (humor)

London, 17 May (MNN) – NASA, the American space agency, has been called into justifying the humongous(-ly little) money it spends every year for space exploration, in a shocking new development connected to the ongoing lack of sunspots.

Officials at NASA’s headquarters in Houston, Tx have neither confirmed or denied (or even been asked) if the whole purpose of sending the Space Shuttle Atlantis a few days ago, and the Hubble Space Telescope in April 1990, was in order to pretend the Sun is not asleep , as in the picture below

NASA-manufactured fake sunspots
NASA-manufactured fake sunspots

In unrelated news: NOAA has announced two new sunspots have appeared on the surface of our star, thereby confirming everything is fine, global cooling is not in the making, global warming will kill us all instead and it’s all our fault.

Categories
AGW catastrophism Climate Change Data Global Warming Omniclimate Science

Lancet's Cryoagnosia: Health And Climate Change Report Between Citation Amnesia And Chinese Whispers

cryoagnosia: from cryo- (Cool, freezing) and
agnosia (Loss of the ability to interpret sensory stimuli)

Is a major new report about “the health effects of climate change” that describes “Climate” as the “biggest health threat” for the 21st century actually based upon a convenient forgetfulness of parts of the literature, and the scientific equivalent of chinese whispers?

It may never be possible to answer that question in full and in full confidence. But there is one interesting, major detail that relates to something I just blogged about.

————————————–

Today (May 14) the “Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission” launched a report titled “Managing the health effects of climate change” (Lancet 2009; 373: 1693–733).

I looked at the report in terms of cold- and warm-weather related deaths and this is what I have found: 

The Lancet/UCL 2009 report’s claim that warming is worse than cooling is based on a single book chapter from 2003 that forgets to mention two very relevant articles; and that disregards exactly the effect used in one of those two articles to demonstrate that cooling is worse than warming.

————————————–

Here’s how I started: having had read that at least in Europe, cooling kills more than warming, I looked with interest for any mention of that aspect in the report. My search brought me to page 9:

From a conservative perspective, although a minority of populations might experience health benefits (mostly related to a reduction in disease related to cold weather), the global burden of disease and premature death is expected to increase progressively.(ref. 16)

That looked like a peculiar statement indeed: sporting a reference to “health benefits” for the few (all of them, in Europe?), but suddenly making warming a bigger killer than cooling on a global scale.

When was all of that discovered, I wondered? Thankfully, I could find reference 16 on the web:

16. Campbell-Lendrum DH, Corvalán CF, Prüss Ustün A. How much disease could climate change cause? In: McMichael AJ, Campbell-Lendrum DH, Corvalan CF, et al, eds. Climate change and human health: risks and responses. Geneva: WHO, 2003.

Relevant quotes from Campbell-Lendrum DH et al. (curiously, again from page 9):

[…] Direct physiological effects of heat and cold on cardiovascular mortality – Strength of evidence

The association between daily variation in meteorological conditions and mortality has been described in numerous studies from a wide range of populations in temperate climates (16, 17). These studies show that exposure to temperatures at either side of a “comfort range” is associated with an increased risk of (mainly cardio-pulmonary) mortality.

Given the limited number of studies on which to base global predictions, quantitative estimates are presented only for the best supported of the direct physiological effects of climate change—changes in mortality attributable to extreme temperature for one or several days. For cold and temperate regions, a relationship from a published study was used (24) […]

The mystery was just deepening, with people suddenly dying not because of warmth or cold, but due to daily meteorological changes, and in particular because of “exposure to temperatures” outside of a “comfort range”.

It was time then to take a look at what those numerical references were about:

16. Alderson, M.R. Season and mortality. Health Trends 17: 87–96 (1985).

17. Green, M.S. et al. Excess winter-mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke during colder and warmer years in Israel. European Journal of Public Health 4: 3–11 (1994).

24. Kunst, A. et al. Outdoor air temperature and mortality in the Netherlands—a time series analysis. American Journal of Epidemiology 137(3): 331–341 (1993).

And what was even more notable were the “forgotten” references:

In summary: the Lancet/UCL 2009 report claims warming is worse than cooling on the basis of a single book chapter from 2003 that mentions: a very old article from 1985; a 1993 research on Israel; a single 1994 article about the Netherlands to represent “cold and temperate regions“.

And that very same single book chapter avoids any reference to two much more recent works, form 2000 and 2002, covering the whole of Europe, and pointing in the direction of…cooling being worse than warming.

The “forgotten references” from 2002 may as well have been unknown to the authors of the 2003 book chapter. But that is no excuse for the authors of the 2009 report.

Also, the fact that those articles were forgotten is obviously due to pure chance: because otherwise, it would be an unfortunate case of foul play in citation“, a.k.a.“bibliographic negligence” or “citation amnesia.

————————————–

But that was not all. Here a bit more from Campbell-Lendrum DH et al. (2003):

There also is evidence for a “harvesting effect”, i.e. a period of unusually lower mortality following an extreme temperature period. This indicates that in some cases extreme temperatures advance the deaths of vulnerable people by a relatively short period, rather than killing people who would otherwise have lived to average life expectancy. However, this effect has not been quantified for temperature exposures and is not included in the model. As there is large uncertainty about the number of years that the casualties would have lived (i.e. the attributable years which are lost by exposure to the risk factor) the relative risk estimates will be used to calculate only attributable deaths, not DALYs. […]

That is not the way Keatinge WR et al (2000) presented their results three years before:

Some of those who died in the heat may not have lived long if a heat wave had not occurred. Mortality often falls below baseline for several days after the end of a heat wave, and this has been interpreted as indicating that some of the people dying during the heat wave were already close to death.

[…] Falls in temperature in winter are closely followed by increased mortality, with characteristic time courses for different causes of death. The increases are of sufficient size to account for the overall increase in mortality in winter, suggesting that most excess winter deaths are due to relatively direct effects of cold on the population.

Campbell-Lendrum DH et al. (2003) may as well have had a disagreement with Keatinge WR et al (2000): but if that were the case, they should have referenced to it and discussed however briefly the reasons for their disagreement. And of course the authors of the 2009 report should have included some remarks on why they would care not a bit about the “harvesting effect”, since the…effect of that effect directly relates to people’s health (well, it kills them…)

In summary: the Lancet/UCL 2009 report claims warming is worse than cooling on the basis of a single book chapter from 2003 that disregards the “harvesting effect”, the very same effect used in a 2000 article to demonstrate that cooling is worse than warming.

It looks as if the information was available out there, but reached the authors of the 2009 report distorted by the opinion of the 2003 book chapter’s authors .  One may be forgiven to equate that with a game of..Chinese whispers (a.k.a. Telephone)!

————————————–

Obviously there are so many claims one can investigate.

But the fact that I was able in a few minutes to identify what are potentially major flaws in the estimation of the net benefits of CO2, suggests that more problems may lurk somewhere else, in the Lancet/UCL report.

Categories
Giustizia Italiano Liberta' Politica

Filippo Facci, o Quando In Italia Si Diffama Anche Non Dicendo Una Parola

Straordinaria sentenza contro il giornalismo, quella pubblicata il 14 maggio 2009 sul Corriere della Sera, di quelle da far tremare tutto l’apparato cardiocircolatorio. E il bello e’ che qualcuno ci gongola pure sopra (cosa non si fa per odio in politica!!):

Il giudice Geo Orlandini del Tribunale civile di Brescia ha condannato per diffamazione la Società europea di edizioni (proprietaria del quotidiano Il Giornale) Maurizio Belpietro (all’epoca direttore) e Filippo Facci (autore della diffamazione) a 50 mila euro di risarcimento nei confronti di Alfredo Robledo, Sostituto procuratore al Tribunale di Milano.

Nella sentenza si legge che il giudice “accerta la natura diffamatoria ai danni del dott. Alfredo Robledo, Sostituto procuratore della Repubblica presso il tribunale di Milano, dell’articolo a firma di Filippo Facci dal titolo “Gli ultimi saranno gli ultimi” pubblicato in data 18/02/2006 sul quotidiano Il giornale”.

Filippo Facci dovrà pagare a titolo di riparazione pecuniaria ex art. 12 legge 47/48 10 mila euro e in solido “con i convenuti a rifondere le spese processuali per 9.500 euro, oltre al rimborso forfettario ex art. 15 ed accessori di legge.

Il giudice obbliga che la sentenza sia pubblicata una volta a caratteri doppi del normale, sulla pagina de “Il giornale” che ospita la cronaca giudiziaria, nonché sui quotidiani “La Repubblica” e “Corriere della sera” entro 60 giorni dalla comunicazione con addebito ai convenuti predetti delle relative spese.

E cosa ha scritto mai, questo Filippo Facci da meritare 50mila euro di risarcimento? L’articolo incriminato e’ disponibile in formato PDF sul sito de Il Giornale, e da li’ l’ho tratto in questa immagine:

Gli ultimi saranno gli ultimi
Gli ultimi saranno gli ultimi

Cosa dice di Robledo il condannato Facci?

  1. Non capisce “per quale ragione al mondo dovrebbe aver fiducia” in lui come magistrato
  2. Sta “formulando l’ennesima richiesta di rinvio a giudizio contro Berlusconi in campagna elettorale, si’
  3. Pensa “tranquillamente che la magistratura, quella in cui aver fiducia eccetera, di” uno come Robledo “potrebbe tranquillamente farne a meno
  4. Conclude su Robledo dicendo che di lui “non voglio dire una parola, perche’ ho il sospetto che ne avrebbe solo piacere

Evidentemente ho vissuto troppi anni in un Paese come l’Inghilterra, perche’ io una diffamazione da 50mila euro (o anche da un centesimo) non riesco a vederla. Specie poi quando uno scrive “non voglio dire una parola“.  E se l’avesse detta che sarebbe successo, una sentenza da milioni di euro?

Comunque preciso che le parole in corsivo sono di Facci, prima che debba sganciare 50 mazzettoni di banconote pure io 8)

Per fortuna mi arriva in soccorso il web. Ecco un’ipotesi su quale sia la frase diffamatoria

credo che l’offesa stia nella parte “i giudici stanno formulando l’ennesima richiesta di rinvio a giudizio di Berlusconi in campagna elettorale

Sedici parole? Da ripagare a un ritmo di 3125€ a parola? Wow!

Certo che uno non pretende mica anche in Italia il Primo Emendamento (troppa grazia!) ma se la diffamazione puo’ essere commessa in forma cosi’ obliqua e comprensibile solo leggendo fra le righe (non si era ancora, all’epoca, in campagna elettorale), tanto vale fare commenti solo sulla musica popolare malese negli anni ’50…

Notevolissimo anche il sottotitolo di un articolo pubblicato sopra quello di Facci: “Toghe misogine“. Chissa’ se quello si sara’ meritato pure lui qualche decina di migliaia di euro per diffamazione?

Categories
Culture English Humor

Pornography As The Root Of European Art

It is clear, isn’t it?

Venus of Hohle Fels
Venus of Hohle Fels

One can only imagine if the above were accepted at face value, how much spicier the National Gallery would become…

Categories
Berlusconi Italia Italiano MNN Politica

Fantapolitica Piu’ O Meno – Dal 2109

Notizia di Agenzia appena arrivatami dal futuro

MNN – Mar 14 Mag 2109

Roma, 14 Mag . – (MNN) – Massimo D’Alema, uno dei protagonisti della storia politica italiana degli ultimi centoventicinque anni, ha rilasciato una straordinaria dichiarazione prima di lasciare questa valle di lacrime alla giovane eta’ di 160 anni.

Silvio ti ho sempre amato. E ho fatto tutto pensando a te!“.

Il Presidente del Consiglio, della Repubblica, della Camera, del Senato e di ogni Consiglio Regionale, Provinciale, Comunale, Circoscrizionale, nonche’ dell’Assemblea Mondiale dei Vescovi Cattolici e Non, dei Rabbini, degli Ulema e fieramente a capo di tutto cio’ si possa essere a capo di, l’on. Silvio B., ha smentito che l’on. D’Alema potesse riferirsi a lui, in un breve commento a latere dei festeggiamenti del suo 173mo compleanno il prossimo settembre. Dalla folla intanto alla notizia di quanto detto da D’Alema, si sono levate grida collettive tipo “A-ha!” e “Adesso abbiamo capito tutto…

Categories
AGW catastrophism Climate Change CO2 Emissions GHG Global Warming GlobalCooling Omniclimate Policy Science

Live Blogging From RGS Geoengineering Debate In London

I am at the Royal Geographical Society debate on geoengineering, with Paul Johnston from Greenpeace and Prof. David Keith, one of the world’s authorities on geoengineering as a way to counteract climate change.

So far Johnston has expressed a heavy does of skepticism on any technology for intervening in the climate. Keith is not making a strong case against the list of issues working against geoengineering, such as the possibility that will be used independently or even as some sort of weapon.

Update: Keith is now moving towards asking to know even if nobody will do any intervention immediately. Johnston replies that money is limited and geoengineering may take it away from “real solutions”

Update 2: Tom Clarke, chair, comes to the rescue asking if there is any alternative given the lack of prospect for any emission reduction. Johnstone says that geoengineering may bring instability when things will be going very badly.

Update 3: Time for questions. First is about the problem of definition of geoengineering. Keith says there are two kinds, solar radiation management and CO2 removal, they are different things.

Update 4: Question on CO2 extraction. Keith is working about it. Scrubbing from the air or from the power plant? First option means you can build it where it is cheaper to build.

Update 5: What is the solution if Greenpeace is so against geoengineering? Johnston wants a much more thorough understanding of the way the atmosphere will react before going the geoengineering route.

Update 6: Keith says if we were really serious on cutting emissions we would be cutting it more aggressively. It is a moral choice, if we cannot cut geoengineering the way forward. Keith affirms he has big concerns too and talks about them,

Update 7: Scientists says he’s terrified about methane in the Arctic: is Greenpeace willing to live with that risk? Other question: geoengineering looks often like a local intervention like seeding clouds: we should expect to be struggling with the difficulty of understanding it all. Johnston talks about huge uncertainties, “at the moment is a gamble”. Keith on intractability: it’s a hard problem. Some of the schemes may be harder. Must start with little interventions and then proceed with the understanding.

Update 8: Keith mentions how after 9/11 we have learned about the effects of airplanes as we had them all grounded over the USA. Yes it is hard, but we cannot do much on the emissions side. We need to do some research on geoengineering.

Clarke asks Johnston if Greenpeace would agree on “free” and “cheap” experiments in geoengineering. Answer is that they need assurance that it will not prevent “the full deployment of an alternative energy [generation] system”

Update 9: Johnston doesn’t want to see commercial interests involved as in the ocean fertilization debacle. Keith agrees.

Final two questions: since we cannot predict what can happen, can we use the 200+ volcanic eruptions to understand better? Also large-scale or small-scale projects, such as improving cooking stoves at community level?

Keith talks about the possibility of biofuels (?) especially in the tropics. Johnston says they had been interested about it for years, and that they want to more about it before investing in large-scale interventions. Doesn’t want to see it as a way to deal with biological waste.

Update 9: Final final two questions. Won’t the politicians think short term and choose geoengineering to avoid having to deal with cutting emissions? Don’t we need research just to start an informed debate about geoengineering, instead of having to deal over and over with uncertainties that never go away? Isn’t much of the technology already available right now? Can we use geoengineering as the “nasty medicine” to scare the politicians into doing something about emissions?

Johnston doesn’t think it would work as a “stick”. He says we need a good reason and guidelines for carrying out geoengineering research and “throwing money” at it. Talks about avoiding unjustified optimism.

Update 10: Johnston suggests to go for research without immediate commercial exploitability. It’s now Keith’s turn: nobody is doing anything serious about emissions, even in high-rhetoric Europe. He says that not enough people have been convinced. He doesn’t “know why”, doesn’t “get it”. “We just haven’t made the sale” to the politicians so they are not serious about global warming.

Keith continues saying GM food are a not-so-serious problem for the experts but the public is very worried about it. For climate change, it’s the other way around.

Johnston thinks it’s difficult to people to conceive the scale of global warming, so they become despondent. Politicians have contributed to the perception that climate change is unavoidable, by doing nothing. People are already starting to adapt.

End of the debate – some more details and considerations will be posted later

Categories
AGW Climate Change Cooling Global Warming Omniclimate Science

Cold Weather Kills More Than Flu

UPDATE: A rebuttal of a major point in the Lancet&UCL “Managing the health effects of climate change” report will be published in this blog by tomorrow

I have already blogged about an article on the BMJ (2000;321:670-673) showing that across Europe, “all regions [show] more annual cold related mortality than heat related mortality“: i.e. cooling kills more than warming.

But there’s more…again from the BMJ (2002;324:89-90):

[In South East England], of 1265 annual excess winter deaths per million over the past 10 years, 2.4% were due to influenza either directly or indirectly

In other words, up to 97.6% of winter deaths could be avoided were the climate warmer. The authors go as far as to suggest that

measures to reduce cold stress offer the greatest opportunities to reduce current levels of winter mortality

Wouldn’t that be a good idea as a goal for geoengineering?

Categories
Blogging catastrophism Climate Change English

Bloggers Of The World Rejoice

A big thank you to Tory MP Matthew Parris, as he has just provided the best argument against putting any trust in old-fashioned newsmedia whenever there is any hint of a potential future catastrophe…

Categories
catastrophism Climate Change Culture Global Warming Omniclimate Politics Skepticism

Sadistic Voyeurism As The Root Of Contemporary Media Business

Or…why have the world media embraced catastrophic AGW so enthusiastically…

Just try to listen to commentator/columnist/political journalist Tory MP Matthew Parris in a short interview on BBC’s Sunday radio programme “Broadcasting House” (3 May: it should still be available as a podcast)

I feel pulled in two directions“, Parris declares . “Bad news, sensational events, apocalypses are good for [media] business“.

Of course he acknowledges that “it can’t in any long term way be in my interest that these things go on“, yet he experiences “little thrills when things go catastrophically wrong” because “there is a column in it“.

Little thrills? Little thrills???

Isn’t that a bit sick? No, apparently, because “every age enjoying some kind of prosperity, as until recently we did, has the feeling that it cannot last, and looks for the vengeance, the retribution, the nemesis after the hubris. They are half wanting to happen” because “they cannot believe their own luck“.

Parris concludes that he never believes he is going to be among the victims.

What can one reply to the above with? Perhaps with a big thank you to Parris, as he has just provided the best argument against putting any trust in old-fashioned newsmedia whenever there is any hint of a potential future catastrophe.

Independent bloggers of the world rejoice!

Categories
democrazia Diritti Umani Etica Italia Italiano Politica Uncategorized

Il Matrimonio Omosessuale In Italia Come Diritto Sancito Dalla Costituzione

Come gia’ detto in passato, ritengo praticamente ovvio che la difesa del Matrimonio passi dall’allargamento del diritto a ogni coppia di adulti che lo richieda.

Dire agli omosessuali che loro del matrimonio possono anche farne a meno, significa infatti dirlo anche agli eterosessuali.

Tanto varrebbe allora abolire tout-court l’Istituzione del Matrimonio e trasformarla in un contratto di rescissione preventivo da esercitare in caso di divorzio (la tradizione romana, piu’ o meno, e in vigore anche in altre culture).

E in Italia le basi perche’ il Matrimonio venga consentito a tutti (chiamatelo pure Partneraiato Civile se preferite, come hanno fatto nel Regno Unito) sono gia’ scritte nella Costituzione.

Consideriamo infatti il paradosso che, mentre una coppia omosessuale non puo’ adesso sposarsi, la stessa coppia (le stesse identiche persone) lo potrebbe fare se uno dei due (paradossalmente, e’ ovvio) si sottoponesse al bisturi e…cambiasse sesso!

Si tratterebbe insomma di ne’ piu’ ne’ meno che un “ricatto chirurgico” con violazione dell’Art.3 della Costituzione. La quale per l’appunto non si interessa di quali siano gli apparati riproduttivi dei cittadini, anzi dice proprio che “hanno pari dignità sociale e [uguaglianza] davanti alla legge, senza distinzione di sesso“: mentre il cambiamento di sesso al momento, rende diverso l’individuo davanti alla legge (matrimoniale) , visto che il diritto a sposarsi o meno con il proprio partner dipende da un’operazione chirurgica.

Come tollerare e giustificare una situazione del genere? Immaginiamoci l’orrore che susciterebbe un sistema di diritto civile che consentisse il matrimonio solo agli amputati…

Categories
Italia Italiano

La Gaia Scienza Con Mario Tozzi

Devono probabilmente passare un po’ di puntate perche’ su “La Gaia Scienza” (domenica sera, La7) Mario Tozzi e il Trio Medusa perfezionino quanto fanno in trasmissione, ma almeno ci siamo liberati dalle noiosissime apocalissi di “Tristia” (al secolo “Gaia” e “Terzo Pianeta”, che Tozzi conduceva su Rai3).

Sara’ interessante comunque vedere se il Tozzi stesso si decidera’ a unirsi alle goliardate, oppure a fare il professorino, visto che al momento cerca di fare un po’ tutto e quindi non fa quasi niente. Insomma e’ troppo “bella statuina” anche quando il Trio non esprime proprio comicita’ degna di Charlie Chaplin.

Infine speriamo che la smettano con le signorine procaci. Ma e’ mai possibile che anche loro non riescano a farne a meno? Tanto vale far leggere un’enciclopedia di fisica da ragazze in topless, e al diavolo la comicita’…

Categories
AGW catastrophism Climate Change CO2 Emissions Data Global Warming Omniclimate Policy Science Skepticism

Science Magazine: Evidence Of AGW Prejudice

Many thanks to the BBC for (unwittingly?) underlying a case of pro-AGW bias on the AAAS ‘ flagship magazine Science , "the world’s leading outlet for scientific news, commentary, and cutting-edge research ".

(Leading? Yes, but where, one should ask. Leading towards a pre-conceived, data-independent and therefore antiscientific understanding of the world. But here are the details…)

In a sentence, the Editors of Science appear fixated with AGW to the point of forgetting the non-AGW articles that somehow manage to surface in their magazine.

The case consists of 2 "reports " ("brief communications"?) and 1 "perspectives " ("invited commentary"?) from the 8 May 2009 issue ; a little-known climate-change BBC blog with a (positive, free-minded) approach; and a sheepish attitude by the BBC "Science & Environment" staff in reporting news with no trace of any critical approach to the subject.

This is the complete list with links (details at the bottom of the blog):

(a) REPORT #1: The Role of Aerosols in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic Ocean Temperature Anomalies (blaming desert dust and not global warming for most of the recent warming of the tropical North Atlantic)

(b) REPORT #2: Basin-Scale Coherence in Phenology of Shrimps and Phytoplankton in the North Atlantic Ocean (suggesting, in the BBC words, that a world without shrimp cocktails is in the making due to global warming, i.e. human-induced climate change)

(c) PERSPECTIVES: Ecology – Some Like It Cold

(d) BBC NEWS SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENT: Shrimp tuned to ocean temperature

(e) BBC CLIMATE CHANGE – THE BLOG OF BLOOM: Ashes to ashes, dust to dust: theory that Atlantic Ocean is warming due to climate change laid to rest

And here the most likely chronology:

  1. Science magazine publishes (a) and (b) in the same issue. Note that they are both "reports" and therefore have been given absolutely equal importance
  2. The Editors of Science overlook (a) (the report blaming desert dust and not global warming for most of the recent warming of the tropical North Atlantic)
  3. The same Editors invite and publish (c) therefore concentrating everybody’s attention on (b) (the report suggesting a world without shrimp cocktails is in the making due to global warming, i.e. human-induced climate change)
  4. Likely via an embargoed press release, word about (b) and (c) comes to the BBC, universally (in)famous because of the "importance the organisation places on climate change as part of the news agenda "
  5. Victoria Gill is tasked to write (d). It is not known if Ms. Gill has read any part of the related Science issue, as in her article there is no mention whatsoever of (a)
  6. Far away from the BBC News room, the BBC Climate Change – The Blog of Bloom is free of mind enough to notice the relevance of (a) in the climate discourse. Hence they publish a blog (e) about it

IMNSHO, the worst part of the above saga is when the authors of the invited commentary (c) do not mention the non-AGW report (a) at all.

Now, we can of course pretend that it all happened by chance. Or we can choose the simplest explanation, using Ockham’s razor: the bias towards propping up the AGW theory is just very, very strong at Science magazine. There is simply too much very good evidence in that direction.

Time will tell how much such a bias will literally poison all attempts at a scientific approach to climate change/global warming…unless of course the AAAS has intended all along to change their magazine’s title to Anti Science

=======================================

DETAILS

(a) REPORT #1
The Role of Aerosols in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic Ocean Temperature Anomalies

Amato T. Evan, Daniel J. Vimont, Andrew K. Heidinger, James P. Kossin, and Ralf Bennartz
Science 8 May 2009: 778-781.
Published online 26 March 2009 [DOI: 10.1126/science.1167404] (in Science Express Reports)

[…] Our results suggest that the mixed layer’s response to regional variability in aerosols accounts for 69% of the recent upward trend, and 67% of the detrended and 5-year low pass–filtered variance, in northern tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures.

(b) REPORT #2
Basin-Scale Coherence in Phenology of Shrimps and Phytoplankton in the North Atlantic Ocean

P. Koeller, C. Fuentes-Yaco, T. Platt, S. Sathyendranath, A. Richards, P. Ouellet, D. Orr, U. Skúladóttir, K. Wieland, L. Savard, and M. Aschan
Science 8 May 2009: 791-793.

[…] We conclude that different populations of P. borealis [shrimp] have adapted to local temperatures and bloom timing, matching egg hatching to food availability under average conditions. This strategy is vulnerable to interannual oceanographic variability and long-term climatic changes.

(c) PERSPECTIVES
Ecology – Some Like It Cold

Charles H. Greene, Bruce C. Monger, and Louise P. McGarry (8 May 2009)
Science 324 (5928), 733. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1173951]

The northern shrimp, Pandalus borealis, makes up 70% of the 500,000 tons of cold-water shrimp harvested annually from the world’s oceans. Commonly captured in shelf waters deeper than 100 meters, it supports major fisheries throughout the North Atlantic. On page 791 of this issue, Koeller et al. (1) report that the reproductive cycles of most northern shrimp stocks are finely tuned to match the timing of egg hatching with that of the local spring phytoplankton bloom (see the figure). This remarkable degree of local adaptation on a basin scale is achieved by females regulating the initiation date of their temperature-dependent egg incubation period so that eggs hatch on average within a week of the expected spring bloom. Thus, in typical years, eggs hatch at the time of maximum food availability. The potential downside of this reproductive strategy is its sensitivity to climate-associated changes in the ocean environment.

(d) BBC NEWS SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENT
Shrimp tuned to ocean temperature

By Victoria Gill – Science reporter, BBC News

Stocks of northern shrimp, the essential ingredient in the ubiquitous prawn cocktail, could be badly affected if ocean temperatures rise. Researchers report, in the journal Science, that shrimp eggs hatch within days of each spring phytoplankton bloom – the main food source for the larvae.

(e) BBC CLIMATE CHANGE – THE BLOG OF BLOOM
Ashes to ashes, dust to dust: theory that Atlantic Ocean is warming due to climate change laid to rest

The North Atlantic is hotting up fast but it’s not because of climate change, say scientists in the most recent edition of the journal Science. No, it’s because there’s less dust around to keep the water cool. […]

Categories
AGW Climate Change CO2 Emissions Data Global Warming Omniclimate Science

CO2 May As Well Make Deserts Smaller

How many news organizations will ever report this…

Carbon dioxide fertilization

Plants may become more able to deal with water stress under higher carbon dioxide levels, thus deserts may get smaller as carbon dioxide levels increase. This impact is thought to be quite important.

Categories
Berlusconi Italia Italiano Picchi

Italiani Razzisti? No, Ma Con Un Enorme Complesso Di Inferiorita’

I leghisti, per quanto cerchino di fare la figura dei cattivoni tutti impegnati a rinvigorire gli agonizzanti partiti di estrema sinistraa furia di stupidaggini sull’immigrazione, non si comportano da razzisti. E Franceschini che cerca di attaccarsi a quello stesso tram rinsaldando i ranghi del PD fra un’indignazione e un’allusione al Fascismo e alle leggi razziali, dimostra di non aver capito molto di quello che sta succedendo.

Perche’ i leghisti non si comportano da razzisti? Perche’ un razzista non dice “ai bianchi i posti migliori” oppure “agli anziani bianchi la precedenza negli ospedali”. Un razzista dice “ai neri i posti peggiori”, e “agli extracomunitari bassa priorita’ al pronto soccorso”.

La differenza sembra ma non e’ sottile. Il politico leghista medio che appare in televisione o alla radio, ultimamente, non sembra tanto preoccupato a dimostrare la superiorita’ della propria “etnia” quando a difenderla contro quello che viene interpretato come una minaccia (qualunque straniero “extracomunitario”).

Insomma questi paladini della difesa degli Italiani sono in realta’ i primi a pensare che siamo alla frutta e che non siamo capaci di difenderci dalle culture altrui. Cosi’ come gli amministratori di Lucca quando hanno proibito i negozietti dove si serve il kebab, come se la cucina locale avesse smesso di essere buona, e/o comunque fosse troppo debole per andare avanti per conto suo.

Quali siano i motivi che spingano un leghista, o comunque un politico italiano, a pensare alla cultura e alla societa’ italiane in maniera cosi’ negativa, e’ qualcosa che sarebbe davvero da esplorare bene…per intanto, consideriamo il fatto che spiega molto bene il perche’ di questo continuo cercare come fare ad allontanare quanti piu’ immigrati possibili, regolari o meno.

Nella cultura italiana che si sente inferiore all’Europa e vorrebbe diventare come quella, non c’e’ ovviamente spazio per africani ed asiatici che anzi rischiano di presentare dell’Italia un’immagine molto lontana da quella dello stereotipo “Europa”.

Categories
English Uncategorized

Consultation On The UK Mandatory Code On Alcohol Sales

Welcome to the on-line consultation on the mandatory code on alcohol sales

Just a few questions. Open until 21 July 2009. I have expressed my opposition about making matters of “public health” the most important topic when devising a policy. Why? Check this out about people trying to defend “public health”

Categories
Climate Change Global Warming Omniclimate Science Skepticism

Interactive Climate Simulator – France 2050 To 2100

French magazine Science et Vie has released a web-based interactive climate simulator (for France, and in French…but it should be easy to use for all).

Looks like plenty of fun. One wishes they had avoided the ambiguity of talking about scenarios and then presenting what looks like a departmental-level forecast with a seasonal detail for every year in the second half of the present century.

And as somebody has already commented, what is the point of going to 2050? Why, wouldn’t it be nice to get some news about the 2010 Summer season…

ps plenty of umbrella business expected around Montpellier

pps for the Britons reading this…it’s roasted frogs in the Alps by 2080 or so! 8)

Categories
AGW Climate Change Culture Global Warming History Humor Omniclimate Skepticism

Of Exceptional Climate Phenomena…In The XIX Century!

From Gustave Flaubert’s “Dictionary of Received Ideas“, “(in French, Le Dictionnaire des idées reçues) is a short satirical work collected and published in 1911-3 from notes compiled by Gustave Flaubert during the 1870s, lampooning the clichés endemic to French society” (text retrieved from this link):

SUMMER Always ‘unusual’. (See WINTER.)

WINTER Always ‘unusual’. (See SUMMER.)

(thanks to FM for pointing this out)

Categories
catastrophism Climate Change Culture Data Global Warming Omniclimate Policy Politics Science

What Are Climate Scenarios Good For?

A just-published review of the scientific literature on scenario analysis, with a particular interest in climate scenarios, shows that those are mostly good to increase an “understanding of the challenges posed by climate change” (i.e. to support propaganda) rather than what they are supposed to, the development of “robust strategies” (“robust” in the sense of validity under the widest possible number of scenarios).

Looking back on looking forward: a review of evaluative scenario literature” (PDF)
EEA – European Environment Agency – Technical report No 3/2009 – Published: 29 Apr 2009

Faced with risk and uncertainty, environmental policy-makers are increasingly using scenario planning to guide decision‑making. The vibrancy of the field is evident in the numerous case studies conducted using diverse methodologies. Yet even well‑crafted scenarios can fail to have their intended policy impact if they present irrelevant information, lack support from relevant actors, are poorly embedded into relevant organisations or ignore key institutional context conditions. Unfortunately, the shortage of research on scenario planning and its influence means that there is limited guidance on how to optimise scenarios, in terms of both outputs and uptake by policy-makers. This technical report addresses this lack of information, presenting a review of relevant academic and non‑academic literature on the issue.

Summary of Results

  • Climate scenarios are mostly used to support further modelling and analysis but can also help frame public debates
  • Their main (only?) contribution is towards “an increasing understanding of the challenges posed by climate change and their shifting views on how best to respond
  • Scenarios can most usefully support decision‑making by helping identify robust strategies” but “the literature review for this report did not find any studies that have thoroughly tested claims that scenario analysis favours robust strategies by carrying out ex-post assessments of the performance of organisations that have conducted such analysis

Let’s call it “the curse of climate modeling”…