Monthly Archives: October 2008

Non Meravigliamoci Che Gli Italiani Siano Divisi

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“Italiani sempre divisi: eredità postbellica?” si chiede Margherita Genovese su Italia Chiama Italia.

Eredita’ postbellica probabilmente si’, ma risale alle guerre fra Guelfi e Ghibellini, probabilmente. Leggiamo infatti cosa dice l’Inno di Mameli in due strofe che nessuno canta piu’:

Noi fummo da secoli / calpesti, derisi, / perché non siam popolo, / perché siam divisi. / Raccolgaci un’unica / bandiera, una speme: / di fonderci insieme / già l’ora suonò.

CORO

Uniamoci, amiamoci, / l’unione e l’amore / rivelano ai popoli / le vie del Signore. / Giuriamo far libero / il suolo natio: / uniti, per Dio, / chi vincer ci può?

Diro’ anche di piu’: la colpa e’ dei Romani, che hanno trovato un’Italia dei popoli e l’hanno unificata a forza. Quando poi se ne sono andati, la litigiosita’ e’ tornata e non si e’ ancora pacata nonostante i 1600 anni intercorsi.

Doomsayers' Big Advantage

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Something that may apply as well to climate as to stumbling financial markets…from Michael M. Grynbaum ‘s “Forecasters race to call the bottom to the market“, IHT, Oct 27, 2008:

[...] Even in normal times, forecasters have a strong incentive to make extreme predictions, which is why those “Dow 1,000!” reports persist. “It’s eye-popping. It’s relevant. It seems exciting,” Lamont said. Such predictions attract publicity, name recognition and a bigger client base in a business where investors pay thousands, if not millions, for stock advice and investment guidance.

And even if a forecast is off-base, there are few repercussions because they are almost always quickly forgotten [...]

Even the guys forecasting in 1999 that the Dow would soon reach 36,000, are still well employed.

I have a feeling, there is something deep inside human nature that makes wild claims, especially wildly gloomy claims, simply too good news and marketing material.

Pity on us then if signs of worldwide cooling accumulate…the smart climatologist will simply extrapolate into upcoming billions of ice-encases deaths.

Global Warming Joke

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(inspired by “How to Be Right About the Climate: Always!“)

An atmospheric physicist, a metereologist and a famous climatologist are interviewed for a position as climatologist. The atmospheric physicist is asked: “What do you predict for the climate next year?” and proceeds to answer:

“I am not sure, but give me a supercomputer and I will set up the calculations for a rough forecast“.

It’s now the metereologist’s turn, and the answer is:

“I am not sure, but provide me with the seasonal charts and the observations from previous years, I will set up the calculations in order for a rough forecast“.

The famous climatologist is finally asked “What do you predict for the climate next year?“. To that, the answer is:

“Whatever you want me to predict…“.