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Meanwhile in the Real World…

Bangladesh gaining land, not losing: scientists

DHAKA, July 30 (AFP) Jul 30, 2008
New data shows that Bangladesh’s landmass is increasing, contradicting forecasts that the South Asian nation will be under the waves by the end of the century, experts say.

[…] The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that impoverished Bangladesh, criss-crossed by a network of more than 200 rivers, will lose 17 percent of its land by 2050 because of rising sea levels due to global warming.

The Nobel Peace Prize-winning panel says 20 million Bangladeshis will become environmental refugees by 2050 and the country will lose some 30 percent of its food production.

Director of the US-based NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, professor James Hansen, paints an even grimmer picture, predicting the entire country could be under water by the end of the century.

But Sarker said that while rising sea levels and river erosion were both claiming land in Bangladesh, many climate experts had failed to take into account new land being formed from the river sediment. […]

Obviously AGW believers will re-iterate that the above observation does not disprove anything, yada, yada, yada. Who knows, perhaps at least one free soul among them will start to reconsider the veracity of fashionable catastrophism.

0 replies on “Meanwhile in the Real World…”

Has Bangladesh’s geography changed much over the last couple of centuries? If not, then it seems likely that this land reclamation by sedimentation has been happening for a very long time. It would be interesting to look at older maps of the region to see how much land has been created and lost since records began, and work out the net gain or loss to date. To put this in context, if this land increase has been going on for many decades, and if there has been a net gain despite sea levels rising by a couple of millimetres a year for all this time, then clearly Bangladesh has never been in danger of disappearing beneath the ocean waves.

It would only be in danger of doing so in the future, if either a) the rivers stopped flowing (unlikely) and/or b) there was a major acceleration in sea level rise (possible, but right now it ain’t happening.)

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