Categories
Omniclimate Policy Science Skepticism

The Meaning of "Unprecedented"

More evidence that things may change, but human nature doesn’t…at least on the centennial timescale:

Astronomer Giovanni Battista Donati writes in 1872:

It is true that everything undergoes transformation; but yet everything also repeats itself, and is reproduced in the eternal, universal, and cyclical course of nature. The rains, the heats, the frosts, the storms, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, comets, falling stars, auroras, sicknesses, etc., etc., have in our days been on such a scale as has never before been remembered. Man easily forgets the past, exaggerates the present, and fancifully speculates on the future. Hence the greater part of vain fears, and of hopes that are not less vain.

Categories
AGW Omniclimate Skepticism

Leopardi (1832) on…Climate Change

Wholly convinced that civilizations make climate milder as they progress, Italian poet and essayist extraordinaire Giacomo Leopardi wrote about Anthropogenic Climate Change around 1832 (from “Thoughts”, “Pensieri”):

(39) […] I think everybody will remember having heard from his parents several times, just as I remember hearing from mines, that years have become colder than they were, and winters longer; and that when they were younger, already around Easter they would leave the winter clothes for the summer ones; whilst such a change today, or so they say, is only bearable in May, and sometimes in June.

And not many years ago, some physicists seriously searched for a cause to this alleged cooling of the seasons. Some said it was the fault of the deforestation of the mountains, and some others said something else I don’t remember: all to explain a fact that is not happening: because actually, on the contrary, it has been noted, for example, in quotes from ancient writers, that Italy at the time of the Romans must have been cooler than today.

That is wholly believable as experience makes apparent that as the men’s civilization progresses, so the air, in the lands inhabited by them, gets progressively milder: and such an effect has been evident in America where, so to speak, according to memory, a fully-fledged civilization has replaced in part a barbarian state, and in part empty deserts. […]

[One and a half centuries ago Magalotti wrote] in the Family Letters: “It is certain that seasons’ natural order is worsening. Here in Italy it is common saying and lamentation that the half-seasons have disappeared; and in this confusion, it’s without doubt that the cold is advancing. I have heard my father that in his youth, in Rome, on the morning of Easter Sunday, everybody would change into summer clothes. Nowadays whoever can afford not to sell his shirt, I can tell you he’s very careful not to abandon any winter piece of clothing”. This is what Magalotti wrote in 1683.

Italy would be cooler than Greenland, if between then and now, it would have cooled as much as they were saying at the time.

It goes almost without saying that the continuous cooling that is said to be occurring due to intrinsic reasons in the Earth mass, is of no interest whatsoever with the present thoughts, as it is so slow to be impossible to appreciate in tens of centuries, let alone a few years.

Categories
Cosmo Italiano Multiverso Universi Paralleli Universo

Perche’ Siamo Qui

A un capo del Vortice [di Prospettiva Totale] collegò
l’intera realtà […] e all’altro collegò sua moglie, sicché
quando […] attivò la macchina lei vide in un solo istante
l’immensità infinita dell’Universo e se stessa in rapporto
a esso. […] se vita dev’esserci in un Universo di tal fatta,
l’unica cosa che non può permettersi di avere è il senso
delle proporzioni.

Cosi’ come un pittore di fronte a tela, colori, pennelli ed ispirazione decidera’ prima o poi di dipingere: cosi’ il Creatore, avendone le capacita’ e strumenti ha creato il cosmo. Non preferendo una configurazione rispetto a un’altra, il Creatore hs dipinto tutti i possibili quadri, e cosi’ tutto quello che avrebbe potuto esistere, e’ esistito.

E quindi eccoci qui, noi che esistiamo perche’ potevamo esistere.

E molte copie di noi stessi, sempre piu’ diverse, esistono in questo Cosmo ma in altri Universi, coprendo l’intera gamma di tutte le possibilita’, oltre la nostra immaginazione. Ognuno di loro, in esistenza solo se ma anche ogni volta che cio’ sia possibile.

Nel grande schema delle cose, l’esistenza di ciascuno di noi e’ quindi ancora piu’ irrilevante di quanto abbiano mai temuto o sognato. Ma dal punto di vista di ciascuno di noi, e’ tutto quello che abbiamo: e dunque, la nostra e’ un’esistenza paradossalmente preziosissima proprio perche’ importante solo per se’ stessa, e per una manciata di persone altrimenti altrettanto irrilevanti.

e tu sai che questi sono i giorni della nostra vita
ricordatelo

Categories
Cosmos English God Multiverse Universe

Why We Are Here

The Total Perspective Vortex […] shows its victim the entire
unimaginable infinity of the universe […] in an infinite
universe the one thing sentient life cannot afford to
have is a sense of proportion.

Just as a painter with a canvas, colors, brushes and inspiration is ipso facto bound to paint: so the Creator, having the capabilities and tools created the cosmos. And with no configuration preferred over another, the Creator painted all possible canvasses, and everything that could exist came into existence.

And so here we are, existing because we could.

And many, ever more different copies of ourselves exist in this Cosmos, but in other Universes, covering all the possibilities even beyond our imagination. Each one of them, existing only if but also every time it could.

In the big scheme of things, the existence of each one of us is thus even more irrelevant that anybody has ever dreamed of. But from each one of us’ point of view, it’s all we have: and so in a paradox, it is extremely important, just because such an existence is so singularly precious only to itself, and to a handful of otherwise just as irrelevant people.

and you know that these are the days of our lives
remember

Categories
AGW Omniclimate

Hitler on…Climate Change

An interesting window on how people justified changes in climatic conditions when there was no much talk about CO2:

From page 111 (155 of 790 in the Hitler Table Talks file):

We owe the present fertility of our soil to the deforestation of Italy. If it weren’t for that, the warm winds of the South would not reach as far as here. Two thousand years ago Italy was still wooded, and one can imagine how our untilled countries must have looked.

Well, that is a description of Anthropogenic Climate Change: only, of a different sort.

Given Mussolini’s ideas on planting million of trees to cool down and strengthen up the Italians, one wonders if anybody was getting worried about an upcoming climate war, already at the time…

Categories
AGW Data Omniclimate Science Skepticism

Results of HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (V)

Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (I)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (II)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (III)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (IV)
Click here for Results of HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (V)

This is the fifth and final posting in a series analyzing the information that can be obtained from the available HadCRUT data up to December 2007.

In summary: the world does appear to have warmed (but by the same token, it has cooled considerably during the year 2007). There are strong indications that it has been a very much hemispheric phenomenon, with little seasonality and hence minimal if any contribution from CO2. Likely culprits are therefore hemispheric-wide effects, such as those caused by the Sun and land use.

=====

Note that the HadCRUT data has just been updated to January 2008, with the following anomalies:

Land NH: 0.058 (coldest since 1989; 3rd coldest since 1983)
Land SH: 0.058 (suspiciously identical to NH’s; coldest since 1986)
Land Global: 0.058 (not hard to guess; coldest since 1985; 3rd coldest since 1979)

Sea NH: 0.200 (only 0.003 warmer than the coldest value this century)
Sea SH: 0.027 (coldest since 1986; 3rd coldest since 1980)
Sea Global: 0.114 (3rd coldest since 1991)

TWO ISSUES I WILL NOT DISCUSS HERE: (a) the meaning of using 3 decimal digits; (b) the meaning of obtaining a Global sea-surface temperature value simply as the arithmetic mean of Northern’s and Southern Hemisphere’s

=====

In HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (I) we have seen that 2007’s yearly temperature averages have been among the top-11 ever but broke no record.

In HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (II) the 2007 monthly temperature averages are shown as having broken only one record (January’s, for Land/Northern Hemisphere), with rankings getting higher and higher over the year reaching as much as #34 for December/Sea surface/Southern Hemisphere).

In HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (III) a plot of the yearly temperature averages’ rankings shows a clustering of warm years in the past couple of decades, although most graphs have a “capped” shape suggesting the maximum values have already been reached, at least for now. The steepest gradient in terms of rankings is by the way between 1910 and 1938, again suggesting we may be experiencing just the upper end of a temperature peak. Finally, graphs are much similar intra-then inter-hemispheric (Land NH looks much more like Sea NH than Land SH).

In HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (IV), the analysis moves a step further by comparing seasons. Correlations can be divided in three groups: Land/Sea, same hemisphere (between 80% and 98.6%, in all seasons); Season-to-following-Season (between 71% and 80.5%, land/sea, all hemispheres); and Season-to-Season (between 64.5% and 78.8%). In other words, there is a much weaker link between the ranking of, say, Northern and Southern Hemisphere Land Spring temperatures (intra-seasonal), than between the ranking of, say, Northern Land and Sea Spring temperatures (intra-hemispheric).

=====

The last result does not look obviously compatible with the theory that world-wide warming  has been caused by CO2 and other so-called greenhouse gases. If that were true, the intra-seasonal correlations would be higher, as CO2 concentration has a strong seasonal component: instead, they are generally even lower than the link between, say, Winter temperatures to Spring temperatures.

The main variable to factor is in all evidence the hemisphere. Now, what can have an effect on sea and land temperatures all over a hemisphere, and in a different way all over the other hemisphere? First hypotheses could be the Sun, via some kind of different coupling with the Northern and Southern terrestrial hemispheres; or changes in land use, that do not have the same impact on land-rich NH compared to ocean-rich SH.

Climatology would be a very exciting science indeed, had it not been hijacked by people on a mission to save the world based on inexact data.